Maize flour and cereals market in Sri Lanka

Earlier Report Observations

The market for maize flour and cereals in Sri Lanka experienced a substantial decline in volume from 189.6 thousand tonnes in 2018 to a low of 84.8 thousand tonnes in 2022, followed by a recovery to 110.9 thousand tonnes in 2023. This represented a contraction of over 55% at its lowest point before a notable upturn.

In value terms, the market mirrored this volatility, dropping from 213.2 million US dollars in 2018 to 130.2 million in 2022, then rising to 163.9 million in 2023. The divergence between volume and value trends in some years, such as 2019, points to underlying price pressures within the sector.

Recent conditions have been shaped by foreign exchange shortages restricting maize imports, leading the government to prioritize domestic maize for animal feed. Concurrently, economic constraints have shifted consumer behavior, with households focusing on staple quantity, influencing demand for cereals like maize flour.

Production maize flour and cereals in Sri Lanka

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Maize flour and cereals production in Sri Lanka has declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, production reached 161.0 K t, marking a 5.2% year-over-year decrease. Over the 2017-2020 period, production fell by 7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.4%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 189.0 K t, which saw a 9.2% increase. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 10.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Sri Lanka in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following two years of growth, Sri Lanka's maize flour and cereals production volume has declined. In 2020, the output was valued at 211.2 M $ US, reflecting a slight 2.1% decrease compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, production increased by 16.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.3%. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 215.7 M $ US, while the largest increase of 17.9% occurred in 2018.

Annual dynamics of production in Sri Lanka in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports maize flour and cereals from Sri Lanka

Exports in kind, t

The market exhibited volatility during the observed period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2018 at 601 t, with a 63.6% decline, and peaked in 2017, showing a 2.7-fold swing between these years. In 2020, cross-border shipments of maize flour and cereals from Sri Lanka totaled 1 596 t, representing a 32.1% year-over-year increase. The largest increase was recorded in 2019 at 101.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sri Lanka in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the United Arab Emirates (24.5% of exports in kind), Australia (19.0% of exports in kind), and the United Kingdom (11.3% of exports in kind) were the main markets for Sri Lanka's maize flour and cereals exports, collectively accounting for 54.8% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sri Lanka in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Market behavior was characterized by volatility during these years. Exports hit their lowest point in 2018 at 679 K $ US, with a 60.7% decline, and peaked in 2020, showing a 3.1-fold swing between these years. In 2020, Sri Lanka exported 2 094 K $ US of maize flour and cereals, constituting a sharp 36.4% increase compared to the previous year. The largest increase was recorded in 2019 at 126.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sri Lanka in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

The market base for exports in value terms from 2017 to 2020 was broad. Australia (19.6% of exports in value terms), the United Arab Emirates (17.9% of exports in value terms), and the United Kingdom (10.3% of exports in value terms) collectively accounted for 47.8% of total flows, with the remaining 52.2% distributed among numerous other countries.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sri Lanka in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize flour and cereals to Sri Lanka

Imports in kind, t

Sri Lanka's maize flour and cereals import volume has declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports totaled 443 t, showing a 57.9% decrease compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports fell by 61.1%, equating to an annualized rate of 27.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sri Lanka in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, India was the nearly exclusive supplier of maize flour and cereals to Sri Lanka, accounting for 95.7% of total imports in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sri Lanka in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

After two years of increase, maize flour and cereals deliveries to Sri Lanka have declined. In 2020, imports were valued at 178 K $ US, reflecting a 55.3% drop compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 54.1%, equating to an annualized rate of 22.9%. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 397 K $ US, while the largest increase of 2.3% occurred in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sri Lanka in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, India was the principal market for maize flour and cereals imports to Sri Lanka, accounting for 89.4% of total imports in value terms, with other destinations forming a less significant portion.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sri Lanka in value, 2017-2020