Ethyl alcohol market in Nigeria

Earlier Report Observations

The Nigerian ethyl alcohol market volume reached a peak of 355 million liters in 2019, then contracted to 277 million liters in 2020 and further to 233 million liters in 2021. A partial recovery to 261 million liters occurred in 2022, but the market fell sharply to 196 million liters in 2023. This 25% decline coincided with the government's launch of an E10 ethanol blending mandate, which redirected some ethanol toward biofuel production, and with import prices for denatured alcohol remaining among the highest globally, making imports less economical and reducing overall supply.

Domestic production of ethyl alcohol remained relatively stable, growing from 96.6 million liters in 2018 to 102.7 million liters in 2023. Market size fluctuations were primarily driven by imports, which plummeted from 160.2 million liters in 2022 to 94.5 million liters in 2023. The high cost of imported denatured alcohol, at approximately $1.5 per liter, significantly constrained import volumes and contributed to the overall market contraction in 2023.

The market is dominated by major local producers like Nigerian Breweries and Guinness Nigeria, which hold substantial production capacity. Nigeria's structural reliance on imports maintains its position as the largest importer of denatured ethyl alcohol in West Africa. In 2024, the average import price decreased by about 14%, while the E10 blending policy continued, factors that may influence future market dynamics.

Production ethyl alcohol in Nigeria

In kind, 2017-2020, M l

Between 2017 and 2020, Nigeria ranked 26th globally in ethyl alcohol production.

Top producers of ethyl alcohol, 2017-2020

World map of production of ethyl alcohol, 2017-2020

In 2020, Nigeria produced 81.1 million liters of ethyl alcohol, representing a significant contraction of 20.5% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production decreased by 22.8%, which translates to an annualized decline of 8.3%. The largest increase occurred in 2019, with a rise of 5.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, M l

Exports ethyl alcohol from Nigeria

Exports in kind, M l

Nigeria's cross-border shipments of ethyl alcohol increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the country exported 1.8 million liters, marking a substantial rise of 570.1% compared to 2019. From 2018 to 2020, exports grew by 635.4%, equating to an annualized rate of 94.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, M l

From 2017 to 2020, Nigeria's ethyl alcohol exports were predominantly directed towards Ghana, which accounted for 95.0% of total exports in volume terms.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Ethyl alcohol shipments from Nigeria abroad increased for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports amounted to 1.4 million US dollars, showing an abrupt advance of 647.3% relative to the prior year. Between 2018 and 2020, exports increased by 680.7%, with an annualized rate of 98.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Nigeria in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over the period 2017–2020, virtually all of Nigeria's ethyl alcohol exports in value terms were associated with Ghana, whose share reached 94.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Nigeria in value, 2017-2020

Imports ethyl alcohol to Nigeria

Imports in kind, M l

The market exhibited volatility during the observed period. Import volumes peaked in 2019 at 253.2 million liters and dropped to their lowest point in 2020, representing a 6.3-fold shift. In 2020, Nigeria imported 40.2 million liters of ethyl alcohol, down by 84.2% compared to the previous year. The largest increase was recorded in 2019, with a rise of 36.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, M l

From 2017 to 2020, the main sources for Nigeria's ethyl alcohol imports in volume terms were the United States (61.3% of imports), Canada (9.2%), and India (8.7%), together accounting for 79.2% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Ethyl alcohol import volumes in Nigeria increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports amounted to 193.2 million US dollars, which is 4.3% higher than the previous year. Over the period 2017-2020, imports grew by 48.7%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Nigeria in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the United States (69.8% of imports in value terms), Canada (7.1%), and India (6.7%) consistently held leading positions in Nigeria's import structure, jointly accounting for 83.5% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Nigeria in value, 2017-2020