Concentrated or sweetened milk and cream market in South Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The South African market for concentrated or sweetened milk and cream began the period with active support for dairy farmers from the Milk Producers’ Organisation, which helped maintain production. However, in 2019, the implementation of a 0% preferential tariff on exports of certain dairy products to neighboring SACU countries facilitated greater regional shipments, contributing to a significant contraction in domestic market volume as exports rose. The market rebounded in 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic noted as having little disruptive effect on the dairy value chain, allowing consumption to recover.

From 2021, industry research and development initiatives addressed sector challenges, supporting gradual market expansion. Consumer purchasing power eroded in 2022 due to broad price increases and weak economic growth, which tempered demand and led to market stabilization in volume terms. A key turnaround followed in 2023 when falling animal feed prices from late 2022 onward improved dairy farm profitability, encouraging higher milk output and boosting production of concentrated and sweetened dairy products, resulting in substantial market volume growth despite retail demand softening under higher consumer prices.

Into 2024, shifting consumer preferences toward plant-based dairy alternatives, influenced by health and environmental considerations, introduced new competitive dynamics. Concurrently, the decline in the global FAO Dairy Price Index from its 2022 peak moderated retail price increases, affecting demand patterns. Ongoing regulatory updates, including a draft revision of product classification and marking rules, continued to shape the industry framework.

Production concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in South Africa

In kind, 2018-2021, t

Top producers of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream, 2018-2021

World map of production of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream, 2018-2021

In South Africa, production of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream reached 118 975 tonnes in 2021, marking a 1.0% decrease from the previous year. Looking at the period from 2018 to 2021, overall production fell by 16%, with an average annual decline of 5.7%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 110 895 tonnes. That same year saw the largest drop of 21.7%, while 2020 experienced the biggest increase at 8.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Concentrated or sweetened milk and cream production in South Africa grew for the second year in a row in value terms. In 2021, the output was valued at 150.1 million US dollars, representing a 20.3% increase compared to 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, however, production value decreased by 23%, with an average annual decline of 8.3%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 121.3 million US dollars, which also saw the largest decline of 37.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Exports concentrated or sweetened milk and cream from South Africa

Exports in kind, t

Exports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream from South Africa declined for the second consecutive year in volume. In 2021, exports totaled 49 699 tonnes, down 8.8% from 2020. Between 2018 and 2021, overall exports increased by 5.7%, translating to an average annual growth rate of 1.9%. The peak volume was recorded in 2019 at 55 096 tonnes, which also saw the largest increase of 17.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

From 2018 to 2021, Botswana, Namibia, and Mozambique were the leading destinations for South Africa's exports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in volume terms. Botswana accounted for 69.2% of exports, Namibia for 8.2%, and Mozambique for 6.0%. Together, these three countries represented 83.4% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, K $ US

After two years of decline, South Africa's exports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream increased in value in 2021. Exports totaled 62.693 million US dollars, up 10.8% from 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, however, export value decreased by 3%, with an average annual decline of 1.0%. The lowest value was recorded in 2020 at 56.560 million US dollars, while 2019 saw the largest decline of 6.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, three key markets—Botswana, Mozambique, and Namibia—collectively accounted for 55.0% of South Africa's total export value for concentrated or sweetened milk and cream.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021

Imports concentrated or sweetened milk and cream to South Africa

Imports in kind, t

Following two years of growth, imports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream into South Africa declined in volume in 2021. Imports totaled 19 346 tonnes, down 1.9% from 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, overall imports increased by 29.4%, with an average annual growth rate of 9.0%. The highest volume was recorded in 2020 at 19 723 tonnes, while 2019 saw the largest increase of 20.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

From 2018 to 2021, France, Belgium, and New Zealand remained the main suppliers of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream to South Africa in volume terms. France accounted for 19.2% of imports, Belgium for 18.2%, and New Zealand for 16.7%. Together, these three countries made up 54.2% of total import volume.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, K $ US

Imports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream into South Africa increased in value for the third consecutive year in 2021. The import value amounted to 61.104 million US dollars, up 9.3% from the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, import value grew by 75.6%, equating to an average annual increase of 20.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, New Zealand, Belgium, and France continued to lead as the top suppliers of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream to South Africa in value terms. New Zealand accounted for 18.8% of imports, Belgium for 18.3%, and France for 17.8%. Collectively, these three countries represented 54.8% of total import value.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021