Concentrated milk and cream market in South Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for concentrated milk and cream in South Africa showed significant fluctuations between 2018 and 2023. Starting at 27 692 t in 2018, supported by a recovery in raw milk volumes since 2017 and a 4.8% increase in raw milk consumption, the market contracted sharply to 9 896 t in 2019. From 2020, a recovery began, reaching 15 592 t, then 20 874 t in 2021, and 26 000 t in 2022, before stabilizing at 26 019 t in 2023. The post-2020 expansion was driven by shifts in consumer demand during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly for value-added dairy products and flavored milk, which saw boosted consumption after lockdown restrictions eased.

Production of concentrated milk and cream declined from 59 627 t in 2018 to 50 615 t in 2019, then gradually recovered to 56 924 t by 2023. Export volumes remained high, though they decreased after 2019, contributing to the domestic market's recovery. In 2023, South Africa became a net exporter of dairy products for the first time since 2014, reflecting stronger international trade. External factors such as the Ukraine war and global feed cost increases influenced production costs, while local floods in KwaZulu-Natal in 2022 had a temporary, limited impact on milk output.

Consumer preferences continued to evolve, with a marked shift toward flavored and value-added dairy items, as well as growing interest in plant-based alternatives. These trends, along with innovation and product diversification, supported market dynamics. By 2024, solids-corrected milk production had risen by 18.4%, and the sector anticipated further growth, underpinned by favorable milk-to-maize price ratios and ongoing demand for traditional and processed dairy products.

Production concentrated milk and cream in South Africa

In kind, 2018-2021, t

Between 2018 and 2021, South Africa ranked as the 19th largest global producer of concentrated milk and cream.

Top producers of concentrated milk and cream, 2018-2021

World map of production of concentrated milk and cream, 2018-2021

In 2021, South Africa produced 54 279 tonnes of concentrated milk and cream, marking a slight decrease of 1.3% from the previous year. Over the 2018-2021 period, production fell by 9%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -3.1%. The lowest production volume was recorded in 2019 at 50 615 tonnes. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 15.1%, while the largest increase was seen in 2020, rising by 8.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

In value, 2018-2021, K $ US

Following two years of decline, concentrated milk and cream production in South Africa rebounded. In 2021, the output was valued at 25 448 thousand US dollars, representing a 14.6% increase compared to 2020. However, over the 2018-2021 period, production value decreased by 30.4%, equating to an annualized decline of 11.4%. The lowest value was recorded in 2020 at 22 209 thousand US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2019, falling by 30.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

Exports concentrated milk and cream from South Africa

Exports in kind, t

Concentrated milk and cream exports from South Africa declined for the second consecutive year. In 2021, exports totaled 34 091 tonnes, showing a significant drop of 15.5% compared to the previous year. Over the 2018-2021 period, exports increased by 4.8%, with an annualized growth rate of 1.6%. The peak export volume was recorded in 2019 at 41 721 tonnes, which also saw the largest increase of 28.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

From 2018 to 2021, Botswana consistently accounted for 88.2% of South Africa's total exports of concentrated milk and cream in volume terms, highlighting a strong market concentration. The remaining share was distributed among other countries.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, K $ US

Foreign supplies of concentrated milk and cream from South Africa declined for the second year in a row. In 2021, exports amounted to 15 983 thousand US dollars, reflecting a modest decrease of 1.9% from the previous year. Over the 2018-2021 period, exports fell by 19.8%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -7.1%. The highest export value was recorded in 2019 at 20 997 thousand US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2020, dropping by 22.4%, while the largest increase was in 2019, rising by 5.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, Botswana (58.7% of export value), Namibia (16.5%), and Eswatini (11.7%) consistently held the top positions in South Africa's export structure by value, collectively accounting for 86.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021

Imports concentrated milk and cream to South Africa

Imports in kind, t

Import volumes showed volatility during this period. The lowest imports were recorded in 2018, with the highest in 2019, resulting in a 1.7-fold difference between these years. In 2021, South Africa imported approximately 686 tonnes of concentrated milk and cream, representing a 28.3% decline from the previous year. The peak import volume was in 2019 at 1 002 tonnes, which also saw the largest increase of 71.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

Throughout 2018-2021, Germany (22.0% of import volume), Malaysia (19.7%), and the Netherlands (19.3%) remained the key partners for South Africa's imports of concentrated milk and cream in volume terms, together accounting for 61.0% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, K $ US

South Africa's imports of concentrated milk and cream declined for the second consecutive year. In 2021, imports amounted to 1 907 thousand US dollars, equivalent to a substantial decrease of 19.6% compared to the previous year. Over the 2018-2021 period, imports increased by 5%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6%. The highest import value was recorded in 2019 at 2 377 thousand US dollars, which also experienced the largest increase of 30.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Italy (35.3% of import value), Belgium (19.1%), and the Netherlands (13.8%) continued to be the main suppliers of concentrated milk and cream to South Africa in value terms, jointly forming 68.2% of total imports.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021