Milk market in South Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The volume of South Africa's milk market remained relatively stable from 2018 to 2023, fluctuating between 3 649 and 3 778 K t. The peak in 2019 was followed by a moderate contraction. Several supply-side factors influenced this trajectory. Growth in 2019 was constrained by global dairy market concentration and continued pressure from duty-free EU imports, which limited domestic industry expansion. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 shifted demand toward value-added and plant-based dairy beverages, but overall consumption did not increase substantially due to constrained household incomes. A significant rise in production costs for feed, fertilizer, and energy in 2022, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and persistent loadshedding, created supply shortages and pushed the market volume down to 3 649 K t. A partial recovery to 3 698 K t in 2023 was supported by easing international dairy prices, which helped consumption rebound slightly.

The market value displayed more pronounced swings, falling from 3 538 M $ US in 2018 to 2 876 M $ US in 2020 before recovering to 3 582 M $ US in 2023. The decline in 2019-2020 was driven by economic challenges, including high feed prices that squeezed producer margins, and the pandemic's impact on purchasing power. The subsequent value growth was primarily caused by a sharp increase in costs across the value chain. In 2021-2022, steep rises in feed, fertilizer, and energy expenses led to higher producer prices and, consequently, a 12.3% year-on-year increase in consumer prices for milk, eggs, and cheese in 2022. Although international prices moderated in 2023, domestic cost pressures from fuel prices and loadshedding continued to keep the market value elevated.

A consistent shift in consumer preferences toward value-added and plant-based dairy products accelerated throughout the period, fueled by lactose intolerance awareness and health trends. This shift was reinforced by processors increasingly focusing on cheese, butter, cream, and fermented products over skimmed milk powder and liquid milk. Into 2024 and 2025, the market continued to experience price volatility due to tight global supply and ongoing domestic economic factors, maintaining pressure on costs while physical volumes stabilized.

Production milk in South Africa

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Top producers of milk, 2018-2021

World map of production of milk, 2018-2021

South Africa's milk production volume declined for the second consecutive year. In 2021, the country produced 3 825 K t of milk, which is 0.7% less than in 2020. Production peaked in 2019 at 3 873 K t, with the largest annual increase of 3.2% recorded that same year.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

After two years of decline, South Africa's milk production value increased in 2021. Output was valued at 3 420 M $ US, representing a 16.9% rise compared to 2020. However, between 2018 and 2021, production value decreased by 5.3%, averaging an annual decline of 1.8%. The lowest value was recorded in 2020 at 2 925 M $ US, which saw the largest annual drop of 11.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Exports milk from South Africa

Exports in kind, K t

South Africa's milk exports increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, the country exported 144.6 K t of milk, up 1.5% from 2020. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, exports grew by 17.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Botswana, Mozambique, and Namibia were the principal destinations for South Africa's milk exports in kind. Botswana accounted for 45.0% of exports, Mozambique for 12.4%, and Namibia for 12.2%. Together, these three countries represented 69.6% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

After a two-year decline, South Africa's milk export value increased in 2021. Exports were valued at 129.3 M $ US, rising 19.6% year-on-year. Between 2018 and 2021, export value grew by 9.4%, averaging an annual increase of 3.0%. The lowest value was recorded in 2020 at 108.1 M $ US, following the largest annual decline of 4.9% in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Botswana, Mozambique, and Namibia remained the main buyers of South African milk in value terms. Botswana accounted for 25.0% of export value, Mozambique for 16.5%, and Namibia for 13.8%. Collectively, these three countries formed 55.3% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021

Imports milk to South Africa

Imports in kind, K t

In 2021, South Africa's milk imports amounted to 42.6 K t, a significant increase of 67.7% compared to 2020. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, imports grew by 29.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.0%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2020 at 25.4 K t, which also saw the largest annual decline of 30.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Poland, France, and Belgium were the main sources of milk imports to South Africa in kind. Poland accounted for 44.3% of imports, France for 10.4%, and Belgium for 9.7%. Together, these three countries represented 64.3% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

South Africa's milk import value increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, imports were valued at 75.2 M $ US, reflecting a dramatic rise of 26.5% from the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, import value surged by 65.1%, averaging an annual growth rate of 18.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, New Zealand, Belgium, and France were the largest suppliers of milk to South Africa in value terms, though none dominated the market. New Zealand accounted for 15.6% of import value, Belgium for 15.4%, and France for 15.3%. Together, these three suppliers represented 46.3% of total import value, with the remainder coming from a diverse range of smaller partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021