Milk and cream market in South Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The South African milk and cream market experienced a contraction at the start of the period, with volume falling from 4.3 million tons in 2018 to 4.1 million tons in 2019. This decline was driven by ongoing consolidation within the dairy sector, as the number of producer-distributors began to shrink, and by weaker consumer demand which put economic pressure on smaller producers.

Market volume continued a gradual downward trend through 2022, influenced by persistent consumer constraints and economic hardship that reduced sales of several dairy products. A reversal occurred in 2023, when the market grew to 4.0 million tons, supported by high international dairy prices and global supply tightness which boosted export opportunities and encouraged domestic production.

The later years of the period saw significant regulatory developments, including the implementation of the Agricultural Products Standard Act Amendment and new rules for fat classification and dairy alternatives. Furthermore, a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in 2025 disrupted milk production through herd culling and movement restrictions, introducing new volatility to supply and prices.

Production milk and cream in South Africa

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Top producers of milk and cream, 2018-2021

World map of production of milk and cream, 2018-2021

In 2021, South Africa produced 4 127 K t of milk and cream, marking a slight decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous year. Looking at the period from 2018 to 2021, production declined by 5.2%, which translates to an average annual decrease of 1.8%. The most significant drop occurred in 2019, with a 4.6% reduction, while 2020 saw a modest increase of 0.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Following a two-year decline, South Africa's milk and cream production volume has rebounded. In 2021, the output was valued at 2 897 M $ US, reflecting a substantial increase of 18.8% from 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, production decreased by 5.7%, averaging an annual decline of 2.0%. The lowest value was recorded in 2020 at 2 439 M $ US, which also saw the largest decline of 13.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Exports milk and cream from South Africa

Exports in kind, t

Milk and cream exports from South Africa have risen for the third consecutive year. In 2021, exports reached 94 886 t, representing a 7.9% increase compared to 2020. From 2018 to 2021, exports grew by 25.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

Between 2018 and 2021, the primary destinations for South Africa's milk and cream exports in volume terms were Botswana, accounting for 30.1% of exports, Mozambique with 16.3%, and Eswatini at 15.5%. Together, these three countries made up 61.9% of total exports.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, K $ US

After a two-year decline, milk and cream exports from South Africa have shown a recovery. In 2021, exports were valued at 66 600 K $ US, indicating a sharp increase of 29.2% from 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, exports rose by 24.5%, averaging an annual growth of 7.6%. The lowest value was recorded in 2020 at 51 533 K $ US, while the largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 2.7% drop.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

From 2018 to 2021, the main buyers of South Africa's milk and cream in value terms were Botswana, with a 20.1% share of exports, Lesotho at 19.4%, and Mozambique also at 19.4%. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 58.9% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021

Imports milk and cream to South Africa

Imports in kind, t

The market displayed an unstable trend throughout the period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2020 at 5 699 t and peaked in 2021 at 23 297 t, showing a fluctuation of 4.1 times between these years. In 2021, import volume surged by 308.8% compared to the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2020, with a 69.2% decrease.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

Between 2018 and 2021, nearly all milk and cream imports to South Africa in volume terms were sourced from Poland, which held a dominant share of 93.0% of total imports.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, K $ US

Market performance showed noticeable fluctuations during this period. Imports hit their minimum in 2020 at 3 579 K $ US and reached their maximum in 2021 at 14 141 K $ US, representing a fourfold variation. In 2021, import value experienced a dramatic increase of 295.1% year-over-year. The largest decline occurred in 2020, with a 68.7% drop.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Poland accounted for 88.4% of South Africa's milk and cream imports in value terms, with the remaining flows distributed among multiple smaller trading partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021