Bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares market in Tajikistan

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2023, production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and other bakers’ wares in Tajikistan expanded consistently from 143.7 thousand tons to 158.1 thousand tons. Over the same period, the total market volume grew from 157.3 thousand tons to 177.8 thousand tons, though this growth was not uniform and included a notable contraction in 2021.

The market decline in 2021 to 161.9 thousand tons coincided with a sharp drop in imports to 8.5 thousand tons. A strong recovery followed in 2022, with market volume surging to 177.4 thousand tons as imports rebounded to 21.1 thousand tons, indicating restored supply flows into the country.

Market growth stabilized in 2023 at 177.8 thousand tons. Late in the year, a temporary Russian ban on durum wheat exports introduced uncertainty for raw material supplies to related segments like pasta production, though it had no direct, substantial impact on the core bakery market in Tajikistan.

Production bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares in Tajikistan

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

Tajikistan's production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 150 720 tonnes of these goods, marking a 1.7% increase from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, overall production rose by 9.8%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 3.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The value of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares production in Tajikistan has fallen for the second consecutive year. In 2020, output was valued at 156.8 million US dollars, showing a modest year-on-year decline of 3.6%. Between 2017 and 2020, production value decreased by 14.9%, with an average annual drop of 5.3%. The peak value occurred in 2018 at 200.6 million US dollars, while the largest decline of 18.9% was recorded in 2019. In contrast, 2018 saw the biggest increase at 8.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares from Tajikistan

Exports in kind, t

In 2020, Tajikistan exported 322 tonnes of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares, down by 3.0% from the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports fell by 31.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of -11.9%. The lowest volume was in 2018 at 250 tonnes, which also experienced the largest decline of 47.0%. The biggest increase occurred in 2019, with a rise of 32.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Afghanistan was the dominant destination for Tajikistan's exports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares in volume terms, accounting for 96.8% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

In 2020, Tajikistan's foreign supplies of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares totaled 335 thousand US dollars, representing an 8.1% year-on-year drop. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 47%, with an average annual decline of 19.1%. The largest decline was in 2018 at 44.9%, while the biggest increase was in 2019 at 4.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

During 2017–2020, Afghanistan was by far the main destination for Tajikistan's exports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares in value terms, making up 94.6% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares to Tajikistan

Imports in kind, t

Tajikistan's imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares have increased for the third year in a row. In 2020, imports reached 17 331 tonnes, reflecting a 7.3% rise compared to the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, imports grew by 56.9%, with an average annual increase of 16.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia was the dominant source for Tajikistan's imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares in volume terms, accounting for 70.3% of total flows, while the remainder was distributed among several smaller markets.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

After two years of growth, Tajikistan's imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares declined. In 2020, imports were recorded at 23 312 thousand US dollars, which is 1.5% lower than the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 32.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.9%. The highest value was in 2019 at 23 673 thousand US dollars, which also saw the largest increase of 24.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

In 2017–2020, Russia played a leading role in Tajikistan's imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares in value terms, with a share of 73.9% of total flows, while the rest was distributed across other trading partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020