Pastry market in Tajikistan

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2023, pastry production in Tajikistan showed steady growth, increasing from 86 477 т to 95 168 т. This expansion was supported by the broader development of the country's industrial base, illustrated by the opening of a Tajik-Turkish bus assembly plant in 2018, which signaled investment in manufacturing sectors. The growth trajectory accelerated notably from 2023 onward, driven by the establishment of new food processing enterprises and the expansion of existing capacities within the confectionery segment.

The total market volume for pastry, calculated as production plus net imports, rose from 89 667 т in 2018 to 101 686 т in 2023, despite a minor dip to 94 991 т in 2021. The decline in 2021 was primarily due to a reduction in imports, which fell to 2 614 т that year. Market recovery and further growth in 2022-2023 were fueled by a resurgence in imports, reaching over 6 500 т, alongside continued domestic production increases. During this period, the food industry benefited from rising exports of confectionery goods and greater attention to quality standards.

In 2024, the pastry market in Tajikistan continued to evolve under new regulatory frameworks, including the adoption of the Food Safety Program for 2024-2028 aimed at enhancing product quality and safety. While annual production data for 2024 is not yet available, import volumes remained elevated at 6 460 т, and factors such as growing domestic demand—supported by wage increases and remittance inflows—along with the entry of new players and investment in production facilities, pointed to a sustained dynamic market environment.

Production pastry in Tajikistan

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Globally, Tajikistan ranked as the 29th largest producer of pastry from 2017 to 2020.

Top producers of pastry, 2017-2020

World map of production of pastry, 2017-2020

Tajikistan's pastry production grew for the third year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 90 722 tonnes of pastry, marking a 1.7% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production rose by 9.8%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports pastry from Tajikistan

Exports in kind, t

The market experienced volatility during the observed period. Exports hit their lowest point in 2020 and peaked in 2018, with a 74-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Tajikistan's foreign pastry supplies totaled 0.2 tonnes, down 91.3% from 2019. The highest volume was recorded in 2018 at 16 tonnes, with the largest increase that year at 40.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Tajikistan's pastry exports were primarily directed to Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan, which together accounted for 99.9% of total shipments.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Market performance showed notable fluctuations over the period. Exports reached their trough in 2020 and peaked in 2018, with a 57-fold gap. In 2020, pastry exports from Tajikistan amounted to 1 000 US dollars, a 94.2% decrease from 2019. The maximum value was 30 000 US dollars in 2018, with the largest increase that year at 7.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan were the main markets for Tajikistan's pastry exports in value terms, together making up 99.5% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020

Imports pastry to Tajikistan

Imports in kind, t

Tajikistan's pastry imports grew for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the country imported 4 367 tonnes of pastry, a 9.2% year-on-year increase. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports rose by 49.9%, with an average annual growth rate of 14.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia supplied 72.3% of Tajikistan's total pastry imports by volume, while the remainder came from a diverse group of smaller countries.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Tajikistan's pastry imports increased for the third year in a row. In 2020, imports totaled 7 015 000 US dollars, up 3.0% from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 25.1%, with an average annual growth rate of 7.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Russia was the leading source of pastry imports to Tajikistan in value terms, accounting for 71.0% of the total, with other countries contributing smaller shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020