Market research

Bread market in Tajikistan, 2026

Release date: Mar 30, 2026

Submission: 15 minutes after payment

Research period: 2017-2025

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File format: docx, xlsx

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Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the bread market volume in Tajikistan grew from 60 326 t to 64 379 t. This expansion was supported by a 2018 agreement to resume supplies of Uzbek gas, which reduced energy costs for bakery production and helped increase output.

After stabilizing at 63 685 t in 2021, the market rose sharply to 68 828 t in 2022 and reached 69 744 t in 2023. The increase in 2023 was driven by rising household incomes and annual population growth of around 2%, which boosted demand for bread products. However, heavy reliance on imported grain and a near-doubling of flour prices over the preceding decade kept pressure on production costs and consumer prices.

Table of content

1. Disclaimer
2. Terms of use of the report
3. Product codes in the statistical classifications used in the report
4. Key Market Indicators and Trends
1. 4.1. Key Market Indicators
  1. 4.1.1. In kind
    1. 4.1.1.1. Production, 2018-2023
    2. 4.1.1.2. Imports, 2018-2024
    3. 4.1.1.3. Exports, 2018-2024
    4. 4.1.1.4. Market size, 2018-2023
2. 4.2. Market Trends and Factors
5. Production
1. 5.1. Production in Tajikistan
  1. 5.1.1. Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in kind, 2018-2023, t
  2. 5.1.2. Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in value, 2018-2023, $ US
2. 5.2. Global production by Country, 2018-2023
  1. 5.2.1. Annual dynamics of production by macroregions in kind, 2018-2023, t
  2. 5.2.2. Dynamics of production structure by macroregions in kind, 2018-2023
  3. 5.2.3. Annual dynamics of production by country in kind, 2018-2023, t
  4. 5.2.4. Structure of production by countries in kind, 2018-2023
  5. 5.2.5. Dynamics of peoduction structure by countries in kind, 2018-2023
6. Imports
1. 6.1. Imports (Direct Data*)
  1. 6.1.1. Imports - Total information
  2. 6.1.2. Imports in kind, t
    1. 6.1.2.1. Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2018-2024, t
    2. 6.1.2.2. Dynamics of product's imports in kind to Tajikistan by countries, 2018-2024, t
    3. 6.1.2.3. Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2024
  3. 6.1.3. Imports in value, K $ US
    1. 6.1.3.1. Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2018-2024, K $ US
    2. 6.1.3.2. Dynamics of product's imports in value to Tajikistan by countries, 2018-2024, K $ US
    3. 6.1.3.3. Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2024
  4. 6.1.4. Average price of product's imports, $ US/t
    1. 6.1.4.1. Annual dynamics of average price of product's imports to Tajikistan, 2018-2024, $ US/t
    2. 6.1.4.2. Dynamics of average price of product's imports to Tajikistan by countries, 2018-2024, $ US/t
2. 6.2. Imports (Mirror Data)
  1. 6.2.1. Imports - Total information
  2. 6.2.2. Imports in kind, t
    1. 6.2.2.1. Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2018-2024, t
    2. 6.2.2.2. Dynamics of product's imports in kind to Tajikistan by countries, 2018-2024, t
    3. 6.2.2.3. Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2024
  3. 6.2.3. Imports in value, K $ US
    1. 6.2.3.1. Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2018-2024, K $ US
    2. 6.2.3.2. Dynamics of product's imports in value to Tajikistan by countries, 2018-2024, K $ US
    3. 6.2.3.3. Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2024
  4. 6.2.4. Average price of product's imports, $ US/t
    1. 6.2.4.1. Annual dynamics of average price of product's imports to Tajikistan, 2018-2024, $ US/t
    2. 6.2.4.2. Dynamics of average price of product's imports to Tajikistan by countries, 2018-2024, $ US/t
7. Exports
1. 7.1. Exports (Direct Data*)
  1. 7.1.1. Exports - Total information
  2. 7.1.2. Exports in kind, t
    1. 7.1.2.1. Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2018-2024, t
    2. 7.1.2.2. Dynamics of product's exports in kind from Tajikistan by countries, 2018-2024, t
    3. 7.1.2.3. Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2024
  3. 7.1.3. Exports in value, K $ US
    1. 7.1.3.1. Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2018-2024, K $ US
    2. 7.1.3.2. Dynamics of product's exports in value from Tajikistan by countries, 2018-2024, K $ US
    3. 7.1.3.3. Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2024
  4. 7.1.4. Average price of product's exports, $ US/t
    1. 7.1.4.1. Annual dynamics of average price of product's exports from Tajikistan, 2018-2024, $ US/t
    2. 7.1.4.2. Dynamics of average price of product's exports from Tajikistan by countries, 2018-2024, $ US/t
2. 7.2. Exports (Mirror Data)
  1. 7.2.1. Exports - Total information
  2. 7.2.2. Exports in kind, t
    1. 7.2.2.1. Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2018-2024, t
    2. 7.2.2.2. Dynamics of product's exports in kind from Tajikistan by countries, 2018-2024, t
    3. 7.2.2.3. Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2024
  3. 7.2.3. Exports in value, K $ US
    1. 7.2.3.1. Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2018-2024, K $ US
    2. 7.2.3.2. Dynamics of product's exports in value from Tajikistan by countries, 2018-2024, K $ US
    3. 7.2.3.3. Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2024
  4. 7.2.4. Average price of product's exports, $ US/t
    1. 7.2.4.1. Annual dynamics of average price of product's exports from Tajikistan, 2018-2024, $ US/t
    2. 7.2.4.2. Dynamics of average price of product's exports from Tajikistan by countries, 2018-2024, $ US/t
8. Trade balance
1. 8.1. Trade balance (Direct Data)
  1. 8.1.1. In kind, t
  2. 8.1.2. In value, K $ US
2. 8.2. Trade balance (Mirror Data)
  1. 8.2.1. In kind, t
  2. 8.2.2. In value, K $ US
9. Top buying and selling countries, 2018-2024
1. 9.1. Direct Data
  1. 9.1.1. Import in Value by Countries-buyers
  2. 9.1.2. Export in Value by Countries-suppliers
2. 9.2. Mirror Data
  1. 9.2.1. Import in Value by Countries-buyers
  2. 9.2.2. Export in Value by Countries-suppliers

Production bread in Tajikistan

In kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Tajikistan ranked 20th globally in bread production.

Top producers of bread, 2017-2020

Source: SHEV.io

World map of production of bread, 2017-2020

Source: SHEV.io

Tajikistan's bread production grew for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 59 998 tonnes of bread, marking a modest increase of 1.7% compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production rose by 9.8%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

Parameter		2018	2019	2020	CAGR
1	Change from last year	4.6%	3.1%	1.7%	3.2%

Source: SHEV.io

Exports bread from Tajikistan

Exports in kind, t

Tajikistan's bread exports fell for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports amounted to just 0.2 tonnes, representing a sharp decline of 91.3% from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports dropped by 98.1%, which translates to an annualized decrease of 73.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

Parameter		2018	2019	2020	CAGR
1	Change from last year	(25.1%)	(70.9%)	(91.3%)	(73.3%)

Source: SHEV.io

From 2017 to 2020, two countries—Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan—accounted for the vast majority of Tajikistan's bread exports in volume, together representing 99.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

Source: SHEV.io

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Source: SHEV.io

Exports in value, K $ US

Tajikistan's bread exports in value terms declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports were recorded at 1 000 US dollars, a drop of 94.2% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 98.1%, equating to an annualized rate of 73.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Parameter		2018	2019	2020	CAGR
1	Change from last year	(7.2%)	(65.4%)	(94.2%)	(73.4%)

Source: SHEV.io

Over the 2017-2020 period, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan dominated Tajikistan's bread exports in value terms, forming a duopoly with a combined share of 99.5% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

Source: SHEV.io

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020

Source: SHEV.io

Imports bread to Tajikistan

Imports in kind, t

Bread imports into Tajikistan increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 4 381 tonnes, showing a moderate rise of 9.5% from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 42.4%, with an annualized increase of 12.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

Parameter		2018	2019	2020	CAGR
1	Change from last year	2.2%	27.3%	9.5%	12.5%

Source: SHEV.io

Throughout 2017-2020, Russia was the primary supplier of bread to Tajikistan in volume terms, accounting for 72.6% of total imports, while other partners held relatively smaller shares.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

Source: SHEV.io

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Source: SHEV.io

Imports in value, K $ US

Bread imports into Tajikistan in value terms rose for the second consecutive year. In 2020, Tajikistan imported 7 037 000 US dollars worth of bread, reflecting a slight uptick of 3.2% year-over-year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 19.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.1%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 5 569 000 US dollars, which also saw the largest decline of 5.5%. In contrast, 2019 experienced the largest increase of 22.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Parameter		2018	2019	2020	CAGR
1	Change from last year	(5.5%)	22.5%	3.2%	6.1%

Source: SHEV.io

From 2017 to 2020, Russia accounted for 71.3% of Tajikistan's total bread imports in value terms, with the remaining flows distributed among multiple smaller partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

Source: SHEV.io

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020

Source: SHEV.io