Bread market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, Kenya's bread market volume increased from 326.9 thousand tons to 347.3 thousand tons. The state-owned Kenya Wheat Board's ongoing wheat supply provided stability for production, while the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to temporary suspensions of some VAT exemptions, coinciding with sustained demand for the staple food.

Market volume then contracted over the next three years, falling to 241.9 thousand tons by 2023. This decline was driven by rising production costs, as Kenya's heavy reliance on imported wheat made the sector sensitive to global price fluctuations. In 2022 and 2023, repeated bread price hikes were implemented by manufacturers in response to higher costs for sugar, fuel, and packaging, with consumer purchasing power also eroded by significant inflation.

The market environment in 2024 was shaped by regulatory proposals, including a contentious plan to introduce a 16% VAT on bread—later withdrawn after public protests—and new Extended Producer Responsibility rules for packaging. Global wheat price surges, influenced by the Russia-Ukraine war, continued to exert cost pressure on bakers relying on imports.

Production bread in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Kenya ranked 9th globally in bread production volume.

Top producers of bread, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, 2017-2020

Bread production in Kenya grew for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 346.3 K t of bread, marking a 5.7% increase from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, production rose by 8%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 2.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports bread from Kenya

Exports in kind, t

Exported bread volumes from Kenya fell for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports totaled 89 t, showing no change from the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 7.3%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.5%. The highest export volume was recorded in 2018 at 104 t. The largest decline occurred in 2019, dropping by 14.4%, while the biggest increase was in 2018, rising by 8.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Tanzania (33.8% of exports in kind), Somalia (21.3% of exports in kind), and South Sudan (17.6% of exports in kind) consistently served as the main destinations for Kenya's bread exports, collectively accounting for 72.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Kenya exported 263 K $ US worth of bread in 2020, representing a 68.5% year-over-year increase. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 123.2%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.7%. The largest decline was recorded in 2019, falling by 17.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Somalia (20.7% of exports in value terms), South Sudan (18.0% of exports in value terms), and Bunkers (16.6% of exports in value terms) remained the key destinations for Kenya's bread exports by value, together comprising 55.3% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread to Kenya

Imports in kind, t

Kenya's bread import volume increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 1 052 t, reflecting a 37.6% rise compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 57.9%, equating to an annualized rate of 16.4%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 538 t. The largest decline occurred in 2018, dropping by 19.3%, while the biggest increase was in 2019, rising by 42.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Egypt (30.7% of imports in kind), India (15.3% of imports in kind), and the United Kingdom (7.4% of imports in kind) continued to lead as the top suppliers of bread to Kenya, jointly accounting for 53.4% of total imports in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Cross-border shipments of bread to Kenya increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports were recorded at 2 692 K $ US, equivalent to a steep 59.7% rise compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 81%, translating to an annualized rate of 21.9%. The lowest import value was recorded in 2018 at 1 349 K $ US. The largest decline occurred in 2018, falling by 9.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the country structure of imports in value terms remained highly diversified. Egypt (23.2% of imports in value terms), the United Kingdom (10.5% of imports in value terms), and Belgium (9.0% of imports in value terms) together accounted for only 42.7% of total import flows, with a long tail of smaller markets making up the remaining 57.3%.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020