Bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

Kenya's bakery production volume grew from 558.9 thousand tons in 2018 to 592.9 thousand tons in 2020. This expansion was driven by lower entry barriers that enabled a rise in small-scale home-based bakeries, adding new producers to the market. At the same time, intensified competition between major brands and supermarket in-house bakeries stimulated overall output and market diversity.

After peaking in 2020, production entered a downward trend, declining to 584.4 thousand tons in 2021 and then falling sharply to 452.9 thousand tons in 2022 and 412.4 thousand tons in 2023. The market size in volume terms mirrored this contraction, dropping from 595.5 thousand tons in 2020 to 414.0 thousand tons in 2023.

By 2024, the sector faced new pressures, including a government proposal to introduce Value Added Tax on bread, which triggered public protests, and rising costs for wheat, oil, and petroleum products that increased production expenses. A price war between industrial bakers and supermarket bakeries further squeezed margins, highlighting the ongoing competitive and cost challenges.

Production bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Kenya ranked 11th globally in the production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares.

Top producers of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

Kenya's production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares grew for the third year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 592.9 thousand tonnes, a 5.7% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017–2020 period, production rose by 8.4%, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2020, the output of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares in Kenya was valued at 1 323 million US dollars, a slight 0.7% gain over the past year. From 2017 to 2020, production value increased by 12.8%, averaging 4.1% per year. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 1 408 million US dollars, which saw the largest increase of 20.1%. In contrast, 2019 experienced the biggest decline of 6.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares from Kenya

Exports in kind, t

In 2020, Kenya's exports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares amounted to 881 tonnes, a 3.6% decrease year-on-year. Over the 2017–2020 period, exports fell by 18.5%, with an average annual decline of 6.6%. The lowest export volume was in 2018 at 879 tonnes, which also saw the largest drop of 18.7%. The biggest increase occurred in 2019, with a 4.0% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Uganda, Somalia, and Rwanda were the top destinations for Kenya's exports in kind, accounting for 40.2%, 13.9%, and 13.0% of the total, respectively. Together, these three countries made up 67.1% of all export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Kenya's export value of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports totaled 1 966 thousand US dollars, a modest 8.2% reduction from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 15.2%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 5.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Uganda, South Sudan, and Somalia were the largest buyers of Kenya's bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares in value terms, with shares of 42.9%, 12.8%, and 12.6%, respectively. Combined, they represented 68.4% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares to Kenya

Imports in kind, t

After two years of growth, Kenya's imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares declined. In 2020, imports stood at 3 489 tonnes, down 9.0% from the year before. Over the 2017–2020 period, imports increased by 10.9%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%. The peak was in 2019 at 3 833 tonnes, which also saw the largest increase of 17.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, India, Egypt, and Uganda were the main sources for Kenya's imports in kind, contributing 21.5%, 20.4%, and 16.0% of the total, respectively. Together, these three countries accounted for 57.9% of all import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Following two years of increase, Kenya's imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares in value terms declined. In 2020, imports were recorded at 7 173 thousand US dollars, reflecting a 1.6% decrease compared to 2019. Over the 2017–2020 period, imports rose by 22%, with an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. The highest value was in 2019 at 7 291 thousand US dollars, which also experienced the largest increase of 11.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Egypt, the United Kingdom, and India formed the primary cluster of markets for Kenya's imports in value terms, with shares of 22.3%, 16.9%, and 14.2%, respectively. Together, they represented 53.3% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020