Pastry market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

The pastry market in Kenya expanded from 232.8 thousand tons in 2018 to a peak of 247.5 thousand tons in 2020, reflecting a period of growth. This upward trend reversed over the following three years, with market volume contracting to 243.9 thousand tons in 2021, then dropping sharply to 189.2 thousand tons in 2022, and further to 172.5 thousand tons in 2023.

The most significant contraction occurred in 2022, when the market volume fell by 22% year-on-year. This decline continued into 2023, bringing the total market size 30% below its 2020 high point.

The year 2024 introduced several new dynamics, including the implementation of the Crops (Food Crops) Amendment Regulations and Sustainable Waste Management Regulations, which set stricter rules for packaging and sourcing. At the same time, consumer demand increasingly shifted towards healthier, low-sugar, and plant-based pastry options, fueled by social media trends. Industry investment continued, exemplified by private equity funding for major bakeries like GAL Baking to expand production capabilities.

Production pastry in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Kenya ranked 18th globally in pastry production from 2017 to 2020.

Top producers of pastry, 2017-2020

World map of production of pastry, 2017-2020

Kenya's pastry production grew for the third year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 246.6 K t of pastry, marking a 5.7% increase from 2019. Over the 2017–2020 period, production rose by 8.8%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 2.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports pastry from Kenya

Exports in kind, t

After declining for two years, Kenya's pastry exports rebounded in 2020. Exports reached 112 t that year, showing a strong year-over-year rise of 20.3%. However, from 2017 to 2020, exports overall fell by 63%, averaging an annual decline of 28.2%. The lowest point was in 2019 at 93 t, with the sharpest drop of 64.6% also occurring that year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Somalia, Tanzania, and South Sudan were the top destinations for Kenya's pastry exports by volume. Somalia accounted for 61.6% of exports, Tanzania for 16.6%, and South Sudan for 8.2%, together making up 86.4% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The data shows irregular changes, pointing to a volatile market. From 2017 to 2019, the peak-to-trough amplitude was 2.9 times. In 2020, Kenya exported pastry worth 300 K $ US, an 86.2% increase from 2019. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 161 K $ US, with the largest decline of 65.4% also in that year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Somalia, South Sudan, and Bunkers were the main buyers of Kenyan pastry by value. Somalia made up 58.1% of exports, South Sudan 9.3%, and Bunkers 7.6%, collectively accounting for 75.0% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports pastry to Kenya

Imports in kind, t

Foreign pastry supplies to Kenya increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports totaled 1 057 t, up 32.4% year-over-year. Over the 2017–2020 period, imports grew by 55%, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.7%. The minimum was in 2018 at 616 t, and the largest decline of 9.7% also occurred in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Egypt, India, and the United Kingdom were the largest contributors to Kenya's pastry imports by volume. Egypt accounted for 34.7% of imports, India for 14.5%, and the United Kingdom for 6.7%, together representing 55.9% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Foreign pastry supplies to Kenya rose for the second year in a row. In 2020, imports amounted to 2 691 K $ US, a 52.0% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017–2020 period, imports increased by 76.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.8%. The lowest value was in 2018 at 1 480 K $ US, and the largest decline of 3.1% also took place in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Kenya's pastry imports by value were widely distributed across partner countries. Egypt, the United Kingdom, and India were the top sources, with Egypt accounting for 27.1% of imports, the United Kingdom for 9.4%, and India for 8.6%, together making up 45.2% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020