Bread market in GCC

Earlier Report Observations

The bread market volume in the GCC experienced substantial volatility between 2018 and 2023. It expanded sharply from 136.3 thousand tons in 2018 to 204.0 thousand tons in 2019, then contracted by more than half to 95.1 thousand tons in 2020. Over the following three years, the market stabilized around 100 thousand tons, with a slight recovery to 102.5 thousand tons in 2021, a minor dip to 99.1 thousand tons in 2022, and a modest increase to 101.1 thousand tons in 2023.

This volatility was primarily driven by shifts in trade flows. Domestic production remained relatively low, between 22.4 and 37.0 thousand tons annually. The sharp market contraction in 2020 coincided with a near-doubling of exports to 187.3 thousand tons, which offset steady import levels. In subsequent years, higher imports and lower exports supported the market's stabilization around 100 thousand tons.

By 2024, imports rose to 302.6 thousand tons while exports fell to 150.2 thousand tons. Market dynamics were influenced by Saudi Arabia's dominance in the foodservice sector, which boosted demand for bread products as a young demographic increasingly dined out. Environmental constraints on agricultural land and water resources affected raw material supplies, while intra-GCC trade expansion and the presence of major players like Cargill and Almarai supported sector investment.

Production bread in GCC

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of bread, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, 2017-2020

Bread production in GCC has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, GCC produced 37 007 tons of bread, marking a modest year-over-year increase of 2.8%. From 2017 to 2020, production surged by 1 557.5%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 155.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in GCC in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports bread from GCC

Exports in kind, K t

The market showed an unstable trend over the period. Exports hit their lowest point in 2019 at 99.0 thousand tons, then peaked in 2020 at 187.3 thousand tons—a 1.9-fold difference. In 2020, bread shipments from GCC abroad jumped sharply by 89.2% compared to the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2018, with a drop of 45.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from GCC in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, bread exports in kind were widely dispersed across countries. Jordan accounted for 8.7% of exports, Iraq for 5.9%, and Yemen for 5.4%, together making up just 20.0% of total flows. The remaining 80.0% was distributed among a broad range of other destinations.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from GCC in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Cross-border bread shipments from GCC have increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, GCC exported 516 million US dollars worth of bread, up 4.4% year-over-year. From 2017 to 2020, exports grew by 14.8%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 4.7%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 448 million US dollars, with a slight decline of 0.3% that year. The largest increase happened in 2019, at 10.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from GCC in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the buyer portfolio for GCC bread exports in value terms was broad. Jordan contributed 9.4% of exports, Iraq 3.3%, and Yemen 3.2%, together totaling only 15.9% of total export value. Many other countries held smaller but still notable shares.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from GCC in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread to GCC

Imports in kind, K t

After two years of growth, bread imports into GCC declined. In 2020, GCC imported 267.0 thousand tons of bread, down moderately by 8.1% from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports rose by 75.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.7%. The highest value was in 2019 at 267.0 thousand tons, and the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 54.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to GCC in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the partner structure for bread imports in kind was balanced rather than concentrated. The United States represented 8.1% of imports, India 5.4%, and Turkey 4.6%, together accounting for 18.1% of total flows. The remaining 81.9% came from many other countries.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to GCC in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Cross-border bread shipments into GCC have risen for the third year in a row. In 2020, GCC imported 1 010 million US dollars worth of bread, a 7.4% increase compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 22.1%, equating to an annualized rate of 6.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to GCC in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the partner structure for bread imports in value terms was balanced rather than concentrated. The United States accounted for 11.4% of imports, Belgium for 4.1%, and Turkey for 3.6%, together making up 19.0% of total flows. The remaining 81.0% was distributed among many other countries.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to GCC in value, 2017-2020