Italian walnut harvest faces lower yields as Chinese supply reaches record
Italy’s 2026 walnut harvest is starting with lower-than-expected yields and slightly smaller sizes after persistent heat and extreme weather. A projected record Chinese crop of 1.6 million tonnes is adding competitive pressure, particularly in the shelled-walnut market.
Heat and storms reduce Italy’s crop potential
Italy’s 2026 walnut campaign has opened under pressure from persistent heat, water stress and severe weather, with initial reports pointing to lower yields and slightly smaller average sizes. According to myfruit.it, exceptionally high temperatures from May through September, combined with wind, heavy rain and hail, affected several of the country’s production areas.
Parts of Veneto suffered hail damage, while early indications from Romagna show production below initial expectations and average sizes slightly smaller than in the previous campaign. Quality standards remain positive, although final assessments will only be available after harvesting and grading are complete. In Campania, the hot and dry summer reduced the outlook for Sorrento walnuts, with initial volumes expected to be below 2025 levels. Some Italian Chandler orchards are showing a similar pattern.
European and US supplies offer a mixed picture
Conditions elsewhere in Europe are less uniform. France is expected to produce a good Franquette crop, with larger average sizes than last year but slightly lower volumes because of the weather. Early indications suggest that French prices could rise. Spain and Portugal present a more stable picture, retaining their role as important suppliers to the European market with normal availability and satisfactory quality, particularly for Chandler and Howard walnuts.
California is also expected to harvest less than during its exceptionally abundant previous season, while maintaining positive quality prospects. US suppliers may nevertheless use competitive pricing to defend market share. For Italian producers and processors, this creates a market in which tighter domestic and Californian availability could support prices, but alternative European supply and aggressive US offers may limit the effect.
China strengthens its position in shelled walnuts
China remains the main competitive variable. The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council forecasts a record Chinese walnut harvest of 1.6 million tonnes in 2026, representing more than half of estimated global production. Its large supply and lower production costs than those in Europe and the United States are increasing pressure particularly in the shelled-walnut segment. Chinese kernels arriving in Europe are also reported to be improving in quality, including colour.
Italian suppliers therefore face competition on more than volume and price. New Factor, which leads the Noci di Romagna supply-chain project, is emphasizing domestic origin, traceability, kernel quality and coordination from farming through processing, packaging and modern retail. The central market question is whether Italy’s reduced output and a potentially smaller Californian crop can offset China’s growing influence on prices and product flows. Until harvesting and grading are finished, the scale of Italy’s shortfall and its effect on commercial availability will remain uncertain.
