Wheat and meslin market in Southern Asia

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2023, wheat and meslin production in Southern Asia, led by India, increased from 144.9 million t to 162.9 million t. This steady growth was primarily driven by the Indian government's Minimum Support Price (MSP) policy, which raised the guaranteed price for wheat from ₹2,125 per quintal in 2018 to ₹2,275 per quintal in 2023. The consistent annual MSP hikes encouraged farmers to expand sowing area, while state-owned Food Corporation of India (FCI) provided a reliable procurement channel, purchasing large volumes under the Public Distribution System. In 2020, buffer stock purchases were intensified to ensure food security during the COVID-19 pandemic, further bolstering farm-level demand.

Imports of wheat and meslin surged from 6.5 million t in 2018 to a peak of 18.3 million t in 2021, reflecting temporary supply gaps and stockpiling needs, but then fell back to 9.8 million t by 2023 as domestic output rose. Export volumes remained negligible after 2019 due to licensing requirements and quota restrictions on wheat flour, first announced in 2020 and formally implemented in 2022. Global wheat price spikes following the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 transmitted to Indian markets, raising import costs but also incentivizing higher domestic production.

Consequently, the total market size for wheat and meslin in the region expanded from 150.0 million t in 2018 to 172.6 million t in 2023, with a slight dip in 2022. The expansion was underpinned by state-led procurement and price support, which stabilized farmer incomes and ensured continuous supply growth. While global shocks added price volatility, the government's control over exports and sustained MSP increases kept the market on an upward trajectory throughout the period.

Production wheat and meslin in Southern Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Southern Asia's wheat and meslin production has grown for the second year in a row. In 2019, the region produced 149.4 million tonnes, which fell to its lowest point in 2018 at 144.9 million tonnes, a slight decline of 0.1%. By 2020, production rebounded to 155.0 million tonnes, marking a 3.7% increase from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, overall production rose by 6.9%, with an average annual growth rate of 2.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, M t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Wheat and meslin production in Southern Asia has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2019, the output was valued at 37,024 million US dollars. By 2020, this value surged to 45,241 million US dollars, reflecting a substantial 22.2% year-over-year improvement. From 2017 to 2020, production value grew by 37.3%, averaging an 11.1% compound annual growth rate.

Annual dynamics of production in Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin from Southern Asia

Exports in kind, K t

The market displayed an unstable trend during this period. In 2020, Southern Asia exported 3,000 tonnes of wheat and meslin, a sharp 98.9% drop from the previous year, which was the lowest point. The peak occurred in 2018 with 1,461,000 tonnes, representing an 879.8% increase that year. Overall, exports varied dramatically, with a 507-fold difference between the 2018 high and 2020 low.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, no single market dominated wheat and meslin exports from Southern Asia. Indonesia accounted for 19.6% of exports in kind, Thailand for 8.4%, and the United Arab Emirates for 8.3%, together making up just 36.4% of total exports. The remaining 63.6% was distributed among numerous smaller partners, each with modest individual shares.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Volatility characterized the market during these years. In 2020, wheat and meslin exports from Southern Asia amounted to 1 million US dollars, a 98.7% decrease year-over-year, marking the lowest point. The peak was in 2018 at 333 million US dollars, with an 881.7% increase that year. Overall, export values fluctuated significantly, with a 395-fold ratio between the 2018 high and 2020 low.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The country composition of exports in value terms from 2017 to 2020 was dispersed. Indonesia held 19.6% of exports in value, the United Arab Emirates 8.5%, and Oman 8.2%, together accounting for only 36.3% of total flows. The remaining 63.7% was spread across a wide range of other destinations.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to Southern Asia

Imports in kind, K t

Wheat and meslin imports into Southern Asia have risen for the second consecutive year. In 2018, imports hit their lowest point at 6,504,000 tonnes, a 27.3% decline. By 2019, this increased, and in 2020, imports totaled 14,188,000 tonnes, a sharp 61.2% jump from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 58.6%, with an average annual growth rate of 16.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada were the main sources for wheat and meslin imports into Southern Asia. Russia accounted for 30.6% of imports in kind, Ukraine for 20.5%, and Canada for 17.3%, together representing 68.5% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The market showed volatility over the observed period. In 2018, import value reached its lowest point at 1,662 million US dollars, a 21.1% decline. By 2020, imports surged to 3,014 million US dollars, reflecting an 81.4% increase from 2019. Overall, import values varied 2.1 times from the 2018 low to the 2020 high.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Russia, Canada, and Ukraine formed the core of imports in value terms for Southern Asia. Russia accounted for 30.0% of imports in value, Canada for 18.9%, and Ukraine for 18.2%, together taking 67.0% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020