Wheat and meslin market in Eastern Asia

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2023, the wheat and meslin market volume in Eastern Asia grew consistently from 145.3 million tons to 159.8 million tons. The most significant expansion occurred between 2019 and 2021, with the market adding over 10 million tons in two years, before stabilizing around 159 million tons in 2022 and 2023.

This growth was supported by a gradual rise in domestic production, which increased from 132.7 million tons to 138.3 million tons over the period, and a substantial surge in imports. Imports more than doubled from 12.6 million tons in 2018 to 21.6 million tons in 2023, peaking in 2020 and 2021 to fill supply gaps.

In 2024, domestic wheat production increased, leading to ample supply and a slight reduction in imports to 20.9 million tons. Weak demand from the flour milling and livestock sectors, alongside continued state reserve purchases to support prices, kept the market under pressure. International factors, including lower global wheat output from major producers, contrasted with the abundant domestic situation, while policy adjustments like the 2025 grain import tariff quota signaled ongoing government management of the market.

Production wheat and meslin in Eastern Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Eastern Asia's wheat and meslin production has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the region produced 135.7 million tons, which remained nearly unchanged compared to 2019. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 132.7 million tons, representing a 2.0% decline from the previous year. In contrast, 2019 saw the largest increase of 1.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, M t

Exports wheat and meslin from Eastern Asia

Exports in kind, K t

The market experienced significant fluctuations during this period. Exports reached their highest point in 2017 and their lowest in 2020, with volumes varying by a factor of 585. In 2020, Eastern Asia's wheat and meslin exports amounted to 0.0 thousand tons, reflecting a sharp year-over-year decline of 99.8%. The largest increase occurred in 2019 at 18.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Eastern Asia's wheat and meslin exports were primarily shipped to Ethiopia, which accounted for 95.0% of total exports in volume terms.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Market behavior was characterized by volatility during these years. Exports peaked in 2017 and reached their lowest point in 2020, showing a 980-fold difference. In 2020, Eastern Asia exported 0.0 million US dollars worth of wheat and meslin, indicating a decrease of 99.9% compared to the previous year. The largest increase was recorded in 2019 at 19.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the value of wheat and meslin exports from Eastern Asia was almost entirely tied to Ethiopia, whose share amounted to 94.3% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to Eastern Asia

Imports in kind, K t

After a two-year decline, Eastern Asia's wheat and meslin imports have increased. In 2020, the region imported 17 367 thousand tons, representing a gain of 41.2% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 21.9%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 6.8%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2019 at 12 301 thousand tons, while the largest decline occurred in 2018 at 11.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the largest suppliers of wheat and meslin to Eastern Asia in volume terms were the United States (35.9% of imports), Canada (25.0%), and Australia (20.7%). Together, these three countries accounted for 81.6% of total imports.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Following a two-year decline, wheat and meslin imports into Eastern Asia have increased. In 2020, imports totaled 4 786 million US dollars, up by 42.1% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports rose by 35.9%, equating to an annualized rate of 10.8%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 3 369 million US dollars, which also saw the largest decline of 2.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the principal sources for wheat and meslin imports into Eastern Asia in value terms were the United States (35.7% of imports), Canada (27.3%), and Australia (21.2%). Collectively, these three countries accounted for 84.2% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020