Wheat and meslin market in Kyrgyzstan

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2021, the wheat and meslin market in Kyrgyzstan showed significant volatility. After rising to 804 thousand tons in 2019, the market contracted to 598 thousand tons in 2021. This decline was driven by a sharp drop in domestic production to 363 thousand tons, partially offset by increased imports reaching 235 thousand tons following the introduction of a VAT exemption on imported wheat and flour in August 2021 to support food security.

In 2022, the market volume recovered to 869 thousand tons, supported by a 62% increase in the wheat harvest compared to the previous year, although yields were hampered by adverse weather and seed quality issues. The following year, despite a 1.7-fold expansion of sown area, yields fell significantly, leading to a drop in production to 440 thousand tons and a rise in imports to 396 thousand tons to maintain market volume at 836 thousand tons.

Throughout the period, Kyrgyzstan's reliance on wheat imports remained high, with Kazakhstan and Russia as primary suppliers. Temporary export restrictions imposed by Kazakhstan in 2022 introduced additional market uncertainty but did not prevent an overall growth in shipments.

Production wheat and meslin in Kyrgyzstan

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2018-2021

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2018-2021

In 2021, Kyrgyzstan produced 362.7 thousand tons of wheat and meslin, marking a 42.3% decrease from 2020. Production peaked in 2020 at 629.1 thousand tons, which represented a 4.6% increase from the previous year. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, production declined by 41.1%, averaging an annualized decrease of 16.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kyrgyzstan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports wheat and meslin from Kyrgyzstan

Exports in kind, K t

The data shows significant volatility in export volumes. In 2019, exports hit their lowest point at 0.0 thousand tons, with a 99.9% decline from the previous year. By 2020, exports surged to a peak of 0.1 thousand tons, representing an extraordinary increase of 1 582 633.8%. In 2021, exports dropped back to 0.0 thousand tons, an 85.8% decrease year-over-year. The fluctuation between the 2019 trough and 2020 peak was dramatic, with a 15 827-fold difference.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kyrgyzstan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Kazakhstan was the primary and nearly exclusive market for Kyrgyzstan's wheat and meslin exports in kind, accounting for 99.5% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Kyrgyzstan in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, K $ US

Export values exhibited high volatility during this period. In 2019, exports reached their minimum at 0.0 thousand US dollars, declining by 99.5% from the previous year. The following year, 2020, saw exports peak at 10 thousand US dollars, a massive increase of 503 200.0%. In 2021, export values fell to 6 thousand US dollars, down 42.8% year-over-year. The gap between the 2019 trough and 2020 peak was substantial, with a 5 033-fold difference.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kyrgyzstan in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, the export value structure was dominated by Kazakhstan and Russia, which together accounted for 100.0% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Kyrgyzstan in value, 2018-2021

Imports wheat and meslin to Kyrgyzstan

Imports in kind, K t

Import volumes showed noticeable fluctuations. In 2020, imports fell to their lowest level at 135.0 thousand tons, a 33.4% decrease from the previous year. By 2021, imports rebounded to 234.9 thousand tons, representing a 74.0% increase year-over-year. The difference between the 2020 trough and 2021 peak was 1.7-fold.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kyrgyzstan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

During 2018–2021, Kazakhstan was the leading source for Kyrgyzstan's wheat and meslin imports in kind, holding a 70.1% share of total import flows, with the remainder distributed among other trading partners.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Kyrgyzstan in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, K $ US

Import values displayed irregular patterns, indicating a volatile market. In 2018, imports hit their lowest point, while they peaked in 2021 at 53 882 thousand US dollars, reflecting an 84.3% increase from the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2020, with a 20.9% decrease. The peak-to-trough ratio between 2018 and 2021 was 2.4 times.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kyrgyzstan in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Kazakhstan and Russia clearly dominated the import value structure, while other countries collectively accounted for the remaining share.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Kyrgyzstan in value, 2018-2021