Wheat and meslin market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

The wheat and meslin market in Kenya expanded from 2.1 million tonnes in 2018 to a peak of 2.4 million tonnes in 2019, before easing to 2.3 million tonnes in 2020. Domestic production increased over these years, reaching 405 thousand tonnes in 2020, while import volumes fluctuated.

Market volume contracted to 2.0 million tonnes in 2022, driven by a sharp drop in wheat imports. This reduction in import supply was influenced by erratic global market dynamics and adverse weather patterns, including prolonged droughts in key domestic growing regions.

The market rebounded to 2.3 million tonnes in 2023 despite a further decline in local production to 309 thousand tonnes, caused by continued climatic pressures and pest infestations. Government interventions, such as the Wheat Production Program and an extended discounted import duty on unmilled wheat, helped stabilize supply. By 2024, wheat imports had increased further, supported by the duty extension and a shift in sourcing, with Russia accounting for over 84% of import volume.

Production wheat and meslin in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Kenya's wheat and meslin production has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 404.7 thousand tonnes, which represents a 10.5% rise compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 145%, with a compound annual growth rate of 34.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin from Kenya

Exports in kind, K t

The market showed an unstable trend throughout the period. Kenya's export levels fluctuated significantly, with a 14.5-fold difference between the peak in 2017 and the low in 2020. In 2020, Kenya exported 1 thousand tonnes of wheat and meslin, marking a sharp drop of 80.0% from 2019. The largest decline occurred in 2018, at 81.9%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2019, at 90.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the country structure of exports in kind was highly concentrated, with Uganda alone accounting for 90.6% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Wheat and meslin exports from Kenya declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports amounted to 0.5 million US dollars, which is 52.3% lower than the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 86.8%, equating to an annualized rate of 49.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Uganda and Rwanda remained the two key markets for exports in value terms, together accounting for 99.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to Kenya

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, Kenya's wheat and meslin import volumes stood at 1 882 thousand tonnes, representing a 5.8% reduction year-over-year. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 1 737 thousand tonnes, while the maximum was in 2019 at 1 999 thousand tonnes. The largest decline occurred in 2018, at 6.4%, and the largest increase was in 2019, at 15.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine were the main sources of wheat and meslin imports to Kenya in kind. Russia accounted for 33.9% of imports, Argentina for 24.6%, and Ukraine for 8.8%, together making up 67.4% of total imports.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After a two-year rise, foreign wheat and meslin supplies to Kenya declined. In 2020, import volume totalled 458.2 million US dollars, marking an 8.7% drop year-over-year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 11.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.8%. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 502.0 million US dollars, with the largest increase that year at 18.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Russia, Argentina, and Canada consistently remained the main destinations for imports in value terms. Russia accounted for 33.1% of imports, Argentina for 23.5%, and Canada for 9.2%, together comprising 65.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020