Wheat and meslin market in Japan

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for wheat and meslin in Japan declined from 6.4 million t in 2018 to 6.1 million t in 2023. This contraction was primarily driven by a sustained reduction in imports, which fell from 5.7 million t to 5.0 million t over the period. Key factors behind the import decrease included the implementation of the CPTPP trade agreement and repeated adjustments to the government selling price for imported wheat, making foreign supplies less attractive. Domestic production showed volatile growth, reaching peaks in 2019 and 2021, supported by the expansion of planting areas for strong wheat varieties like 'Yumekaori' and reinforced policy measures under the farm income stabilization program.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused temporary supply chain disruptions, contributing to a dip in production that year. Subsequently, the revised Food Labeling Act in 2022 strengthened country-of-origin disclosure rules, amplifying consumer preference for domestic wheat. While this boosted demand for local grain, domestic production could not keep pace in 2022, leading to a temporary rise in imports. By 2023, improved cultivation techniques and new wheat variety development helped domestic output recover, yet the overall market size continued to shrink as import volumes kept falling.

Production wheat and meslin in Japan

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2018-2021

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2018-2021

In 2021, Japan produced 1,097 K t of wheat and meslin, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 15.6%. Between 2018 and 2021, production grew by 43.4%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 12.8%. The largest annual increase occurred in 2019 at 35.6%, while the largest decline was recorded in 2020 at 8.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Japan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports wheat and meslin from Japan

Based on desk-based market research, Japan did not export any wheat and meslin from 2018 to 2021.

Imports wheat and meslin to Japan

Imports in kind, K t

In 2021, Japan's wheat and meslin imports amounted to 5,126 K t, showing a modest decline of 4.6% compared to 2020. Between 2018 and 2021, imports decreased by 9.3%, equating to an annualized decline rate of 3.2%. The largest annual decline was recorded in 2019 at 5.7%, while the largest increase occurred in 2020 at 0.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Japan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, the United States and Canada were the key sources for Japan's wheat and meslin imports in kind, jointly accounting for 82.1% of total flows. Other trading partners were individually much less significant during this period.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Japan in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

Japan's wheat and meslin imports in value terms increased for the second consecutive year. In 2021, Japan imported a total of {value_last_year} M $ US worth of wheat and meslin, which is 17.0% higher than the previous year. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, imports increased by 8.9%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9%. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 1,473 M $ US, which also saw the largest annual decline of 10.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Japan in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Throughout 2018 to 2021, the United States and Canada remained the primary suppliers of wheat and meslin to Japan in value terms, with a combined share of 81.5% of total imports. Other countries accounted for the remainder during this period.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Japan in value, 2018-2021