Wheat and meslin market in Uganda

Earlier Report Observations

The wheat and meslin market in Uganda exhibited considerable volatility from 2018 to 2023, with volume peaking at 806 thousand tons in 2023 after earlier fluctuations. Growth to 718 thousand tons in 2019 was supported by the Ministry of Agriculture's distribution of improved inputs and strengthened marketing channels for cereals. However, the market contracted to 646 thousand tons in 2020 as import volumes declined.

Recovery to 697 thousand tons in 2021 coincided with the ministry's issuance of new guidelines and standard operating procedures that enhanced regulatory clarity for agricultural products. The subsequent drop to 642 thousand tons in 2022 was linked to identified policy gaps in agroecological trade that slowed regional market access and trade finance for small-scale producers.

A sharp expansion to 806 thousand tons in 2023 followed the enactment of the Animal Feeds Act 2023 and increased infrastructure investments for post-harvest processing and market access. By 2024, import volumes remained elevated at 778 thousand tons, underpinned by new digitized credit plans allowing stored wheat to serve as collateral for commercial loans and ongoing efforts to certify agroecological produce for better market integration.

Production wheat and meslin in Uganda

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Uganda's wheat and meslin production has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 25 000 tonnes, marking a 4.2% rise compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 13.1%, with an average annual growth rate of 4.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Uganda in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports wheat and meslin from Uganda

Exports in kind, K t

Uganda's wheat and meslin export volume has declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports were recorded at 0.0 thousand tonnes, representing a decrease of 62.7% from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports fell by 92.7%, which translates to an annualized decline of 58.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Uganda in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Rwanda and Kenya were the primary markets for Uganda's wheat and meslin exports in kind, together accounting for 93.5% of total flows. Other destinations had relatively smaller shares during this period.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Uganda in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The market exhibited volatility over the observed period. Import levels fluctuated significantly, with a 18-fold difference between the peak in 2017 and the low in 2020. In 2020, Uganda's wheat and meslin export value amounted to 0.0 million US dollars, showing a year-on-year decrease of 90.0%. The largest increase occurred in 2019, at 16.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Uganda in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017–2020, Rwanda remained the dominant destination for Uganda's wheat and meslin exports in value terms, holding an 87.3% share of total flows. The remainder was fragmented across other markets.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Uganda in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to Uganda

Imports in kind, K t

Uganda imported approximately 621.4 thousand tonnes of wheat and meslin in 2020, which is 10.5% lower than in 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 6.7%, with an average annual decline of 2.3%. The highest volume was recorded in 2019 at 694.3 thousand tonnes, which also saw the largest increase of 9.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Uganda in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine were the key partners for Uganda's wheat and meslin imports in kind. Russia accounted for 37.5% of imports, Argentina for 25.9%, and Ukraine for 14.1%, together representing 77.5% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Uganda in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After a two-year increase, Uganda's wheat and meslin imports declined. In 2020, imports reached 151.7 million US dollars, indicating a strong decrease of 11.7% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports rose by 2.9%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 0.9%. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 171.9 million US dollars, which also experienced the largest increase of 11.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Uganda in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017–2020, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine remained the primary sources for Uganda's wheat and meslin imports in value terms. Russia held a 37.1% share, Argentina 25.4%, and Ukraine 13.9%, collectively accounting for 76.5% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Uganda in value, 2017-2020