Wheat and meslin market in Italy

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, Italy's wheat and meslin market volume showed variability. In 2018, the market reached 14.4 million tons, supported by strong demand from the pasta industry for high-quality domestic durum wheat, even as reduced sown areas and high production costs limited supply. The following year, volume slipped to 14.0 million tons amid price pressure from imports from Turkey and Kazakhstan, which undercut local prices, while exports to non-EU countries grew. In 2020, despite a harvest that fell short of consumption needs, market size rose to 14.6 million tons, sustained by imports and firm reference prices due to tight domestic availability.

The 2021-2023 period was shaped by external shocks and production recoveries. The war in Ukraine from early 2022 disrupted supply routes and prompted the EU to allow duty-free imports of Ukrainian wheat, weighing on Italian prices. In 2022, severe drought cut domestic durum wheat production by 15%, contributing to a market contraction to 13.2 million tons. However, 2023 saw a sharp rebound to 15.4 million tons, driven by a 12% increase in national production thanks to expanded use of certified seeds, coupled with renewed demand for pasta semolina and falling global prices as US stocks dwindled.

For 2024, climatic factors such as persistent southern drought and northern heavy rains continue to challenge yields, while imports from Turkey and Kazakhstan keep prices in the 350-400 €/t range. The EU's zero-tariff regime for Ukrainian wheat remains in place, and new rules mandating certified seeds for coupled aid aim to steer farmers toward more sustainable practices.

Production wheat and meslin in Italy

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Italy held the 19th position globally in wheat and meslin production.

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Italy's wheat and meslin production declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, output was 6 716 K t, showing little change from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, production fell by 3.6%, averaging a 1.2% annual decrease. The peak was in 2018 at 7 105 K t, while the sharpest drop occurred in 2019 with a 5.1% decline. The largest increase was in 2018 at 2.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Italy in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin from Italy

Exports in kind, K t

Italy's wheat and meslin exports fell for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports were 65 K t, down 3.5% from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, exports plummeted by 88.7%, with an average annual decline of 51.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Italy in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, three key markets—Tunisia, France, and Germany—accounted for 77.8% of Italy's total wheat and meslin exports in volume.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Italy in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Italy's wheat and meslin export value dropped for the third straight year. In 2020, exports totaled 28 M $ US, a significant 15.3% decrease year-over-year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value declined by 83.4%, with an average annual fall of 45.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Italy in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Tunisia, France, and Germany were the top destinations for Italy's wheat and meslin exports by value, with shares of 50.7%, 15.5%, and 8.5%, respectively. Together, they made up 74.8% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Italy in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to Italy

Imports in kind, K t

Italy's wheat and meslin imports rose to 7 926 K t in 2020, up 7.6% from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 6.7%, averaging a 2.2% annual increase. The lowest volume was in 2019 at 7 369 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 1.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Italy in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, France, Hungary, and Canada were major suppliers of wheat and meslin to Italy, contributing 16.4%, 16.3%, and 12.6% of imports in volume, respectively. However, their combined share was just 45.4%, reflecting a highly diversified import base.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Italy in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Italy's wheat and meslin import value reached 2 026 M $ US in 2020, an 11.1% increase from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, import value rose by 17.8%, with an average annual growth of 5.6%. The largest decline was in 2019 at 0.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Italy in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017-2020, Italy's wheat and meslin imports by value were fairly distributed, with France, Canada, and Hungary accounting for 15.9%, 14.5%, and 13.5%, respectively. Together, they represented only 44.0% of total import value.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Italy in value, 2017-2020