Wheat and meslin market in Central Asia

Earlier Report Observations

The wheat and meslin market in Central Asia experienced notable swings in volume from 2018 to 2023. After stable levels around 19 100 thousand tons in 2018-2019, consumption surged to 22 770 thousand tons in 2020. This growth coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased regional food demand and inflated prices, pushing the market's value to $5.8 billion.

Volume receded to 19 094 thousand tons in 2021 but then leaped to a high of 24 971 thousand tons in 2022. This sharp rise was primarily driven by Russia's ban on wheat exports to Eurasian Economic Union countries, which altered trade flows and stimulated production within Central Asia, with the market value reaching $9.1 billion. In 2023, volume contracted to 21 287 thousand tons and value fell to $6.3 billion, a period marked by increased export volumes from Kazakhstan and discussions about potential export duties, all against a backdrop of declining global wheat prices.

Throughout this period, Kazakhstan remained the region's key supplier, with its export performance and investment in northern growing areas directly shaping Central Asia's market dynamics.

Production wheat and meslin in Central Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Central Asia's wheat and meslin production rebounded after two years of decline. In 2020, the region produced 23 372 K t, marking a robust 13.2% increase compared to the previous year. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production decreased by 2.5% overall, which translates to an average annual decline of 0.8%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 20 637 K t, while the largest year-on-year drop occurred in 2018 with an 8.9% decrease.

Annual dynamics of production in Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Central Asia's wheat and meslin production value has grown for the second year in a row. In 2020, the output was valued at 5 999 M $ US, representing a significant 21.6% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production value rose by 15.1%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 4 715 M $ US, which also saw the largest decline of 9.6% that year.

Annual dynamics of production in Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin from Central Asia

Exports in kind, K t

In 2020, Central Asia's wheat and meslin exports reached 4 505 K t, a 5.2% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports grew by 37.5%, with a CAGR of 11.2%. The highest export volume was recorded in 2018 at 4 595 K t, which also experienced the largest annual increase of 40.3%. The most significant decline occurred in 2019 with a 6.8% drop.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, the export structure for wheat and meslin from Central Asia remained highly fragmented. Afghanistan accounted for 9.0% of exports in kind, China for 7.0%, and Italy for 4.0%. Together, these three countries represented just 20.0% of total export flows, with no single destination achieving a dominant share.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Central Asia's wheat and meslin export value has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports amounted to 1 157 M $ US, reflecting a 12.9% rise compared to the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, export value grew by 62.3%, with a CAGR of 17.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Data from 2017 to 2020 shows that Central Asia's wheat and meslin exports in value terms were not concentrated among a few key markets. Afghanistan accounted for 9.6% of export value, China for 7.8%, and Italy for 4.9%. Combined, these three countries represented only 22.3% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Central Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to Central Asia

Imports in kind, K t

Central Asia's wheat and meslin import volume has risen for the third year in a row. In 2020, imports totaled 3 904 K t, showing a sharp 42.4% increase from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, import volume surged by 220.2%, equivalent to an annualized growth rate of 47.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia played the leading role in wheat and meslin imports to Central Asia in kind, accounting for 9.4% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Central Asia's wheat and meslin import value has grown for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports were recorded at 922 M $ US, marking a 35.9% advance from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, import value increased by 183.2%, with a CAGR of 41.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Russia held the leading position in wheat and meslin imports to Central Asia in value terms, with its share reaching 8.5% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Central Asia in value, 2017-2020