Wheat and meslin market in South Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The wheat and meslin market in South Africa showed volatile trends from 2018 to 2020. Following a severe drought in 2017, production recovered in 2018, supported by favorable weather and a weaker rand, while high import volumes maintained a large market size of 3.8 million tons. However, in 2019, market volume fell to 3.2 million tons despite continued good growing conditions. A sharp rebound occurred in 2020, with the market reaching 4.2 million tons, driven by increased domestic production and imports.

The market contracted over the next two years. In 2021, a more than 50% surge in input costs for fertilizers and crop protection, linked to global supply chain disruptions, reduced import volumes and pressured local profitability, shrinking the market to 3.7 million tons. The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 further elevated global wheat and fertilizer prices, encouraging exports and tightening local supply, which reduced the market volume to 3.5 million tons. New wheat classification and labeling regulations were also implemented during this period to ensure fair trade practices.

Market volume edged up to 3.6 million tons in 2023, primarily due to a rise in imports, while domestic production held steady. Global factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and persistently high input costs, continued to influence prices and trade flows, with import dependency remaining a key feature of the market.

Production wheat and meslin in South Africa

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2018-2021

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2018-2021

South Africa's wheat and meslin production has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2021, the country produced 2 285 K t of wheat and meslin, marking a modest 7.8% rise compared to 2020. Looking at the broader period from 2018 to 2021, production grew by 22.3%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 6.9%. The lowest production volume was recorded in 2019 at 1 535 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 17.8%. In contrast, the most significant increase occurred in 2020, with a jump of 38.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Wheat and meslin production in South Africa has risen for the second year in a row. In 2021, the output was valued at 819.8 M $ US, representing a dramatic increase of 32.2% year-over-year. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, production value increased by 37.7%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 11.2%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 515.6 M $ US, which also experienced the largest decline of 13.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin from South Africa

Exports in kind, K t

Wheat and meslin exports from South Africa have increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, the export volume reached 264 K t, up by 44.5% compared to the previous year. From 2018 to 2021, exports surged by 330.3%, which corresponds to an annualized growth rate of 62.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Between 2018 and 2021, Zimbabwe, Eswatini, and Botswana were the main markets for South Africa's wheat and meslin exports in kind. Zimbabwe accounted for 28.5% of exports, Eswatini for 14.7%, and Botswana for 13.9%. Together, these three countries represented 57.1% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

South Africa's wheat and meslin export value has increased for the third year in a row. In 2021, exports totaled 94.7 M $ US, up by 77.2% compared to 2020. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, export value grew by 384.2%, with an annualized growth rate of 69.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Eswatini remained the primary buyers of wheat and meslin from South Africa in value terms. Zimbabwe contributed 29.1% of export value, Botswana 14.6%, and Eswatini 13.9%. Collectively, these three markets accounted for 57.5% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021

Imports wheat and meslin to South Africa

Imports in kind, K t

In 2021, South Africa's wheat and meslin import volume stood at 1 685 K t, showing a notable reduction of 23.9% compared to the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, imports decreased by 14.4%, equating to an annualized decline of 5.1%. The highest import volume was recorded in 2020 at 2 215 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 21.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Over the period 2018–2021, Russia, Germany, and Lithuania were the main suppliers of wheat and meslin to South Africa in kind. Russia accounted for 26.3% of imports, Germany for 14.5%, and Lithuania for 13.8%. Together, these three countries comprised 54.7% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2021, South Africa's wheat and meslin import value totaled 458.4 M $ US, marking a modest drop of 7.3% from the year before. Over the period 2018-2021, import value increased by 14.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.6%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 390.9 M $ US, while the highest was in 2020 at 494.3 M $ US. The largest increase occurred in 2020, with a rise of 26.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Throughout 2018–2021, Russia, Lithuania, and Germany formed the core group of markets for South Africa's wheat and meslin imports in value terms. Russia accounted for 25.1% of import value, Lithuania for 14.0%, and Germany for 14.0%. Together, these three countries represented 53.1% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021