Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Tanzania

Earlier Report Observations

In 2018, Tanzania mandated the fortification of large-scale industrially produced wheat and maize flour with key micronutrients, enhancing the nutritional profile of these staples. Concurrently, a shift in consumer preferences away from traditional foods like coarse cereals and tubers toward wheat-based products, particularly in rural and peri-urban areas, began to stimulate demand. These developments supported a market volume increase from 555 thousand tons in 2018 to 707 thousand tons in 2019.

From 2020, wheat cultivation became less attractive to Tanzanian farmers due to comparatively low productivity and profitability. Many growers in the Southern Highlands replaced wheat with beans and peas encouraged by higher prices for these alternatives, reducing the area harvested. This decline in domestic production, coupled with sustained import reliance, led to a contraction in the overall market, which fell to 564 thousand tons in 2020 and further to 499 thousand tons in 2021.

A recovery commenced in 2022, bolstered by the revival of the tourism and hospitality sector, which increased demand for wheat-based goods like bread and pastries. This trend accelerated in 2023, with tourism revenue growing by 30%, directly boosting consumption. Simultaneously, major miller Camel Flour expanded its daily milling capacity by 350 tons through a new facility, helping to meet the rising demand. Consequently, the market volume recovered to 596 thousand tons in 2022 and grew to 687 thousand tons in 2023.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Tanzania

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Tanzania's production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals declined after two years of growth. In 2019, production reached its peak at 700.0 K t, but then fell to 570.0 K t in 2020, marking an 18.6% year-over-year decrease. Overall, from 2017 to 2020, production dropped by 12.9%, which translates to an average annual decline of 4.5%. The largest annual increase occurred in 2018, with a rise of 5.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Tanzania in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Tanzania

Exports in kind, K t

The export market showed an unstable trend during this period. In 2018, exports peaked at 150.7 K t, but then plummeted to a low of 15.2 K t in 2019, representing a 9.9-fold difference between these years. By 2020, exports rebounded to 22.8 K t, a 50.0% increase compared to 2019. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 89.9%, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 with a surge of 314.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tanzania in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo consistently dominated Tanzania's exports in kind, accounting for 83.8% of the total. This high concentration highlights a strong reliance on this single market, with the remaining share distributed among other countries.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tanzania in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The export data reveals irregular changes, pointing to a volatile market environment. In 2018, exports reached a peak of 74 553 K $ US, but then dropped sharply to a trough of 6 403 K $ US in 2019, showing an 11.6-fold swing. By 2020, cross-border shipments of wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Tanzania stood at 10 353 K $ US, an abrupt increase of 61.7% over the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 91.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tanzania in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

During 2017–2020, Tanzania's export structure in value terms was heavily focused on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which accounted for 89.5% of total flows. Other partners made up the remaining volume.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tanzania in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Tanzania

Imports in kind, K t

After two years of growth, Tanzania's imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals declined. In 2019, imports reached their highest point at 21.7 K t, but then fell to 16.5 K t in 2020, reflecting a strong decline of 24.0% year-over-year. Overall, from 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 16.4%, equating to an average annual growth rate of 5.2%. The largest increase was recorded in 2019 at 37.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tanzania in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Turkey remained the leading supplier of wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Tanzania, accounting for 76.5% of total imports in kind. The rest was spread across many other countries.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tanzania in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

After a two-year rise, Tanzania's import volume of wheat and meslin flour and cereals declined. In 2019, imports peaked at 9 116 K $ US, but then dropped to 7 025 K $ US in 2020, which is 22.9% less year-over-year. Over the period 2017-2020, imports decreased by 3.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.2%. The largest increase was recorded in 2018 at 12.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tanzania in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

In 2017–2020, Turkey remained the main source for wheat and meslin flour and cereals imports to Tanzania, taking 75.6% of total imports in value terms. The remaining volume was distributed among other countries.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tanzania in value, 2017-2020