Maize flour and cereals market in Tanzania

Earlier Report Observations

Tanzania's maize flour and cereals market expanded steadily from 2018, initially supported by a maize export ban introduced in mid-2018 which increased domestic grain availability for millers. This growth was further reinforced by the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA), whose budget surged from Sh 19 billion to Sh 119 billion in 2021, enabling massive grain purchases that provided a stable market for farmers and boosted milling activity.

A major acceleration in production occurred following the launch of the government's Fertiliser Subsidy Programme for the 2022/23 season. This policy directly raised maize yields, feeding through to higher flour output, which reached 5 million tonnes by 2023. The subsidy programme was renewed for 2023/24, sustaining Tanzania's rise to become one of Africa's top maize producers.

Market dynamics in 2023 and 2024 were shaped by active state interventions. NFRA simultaneously released thousands of tonnes of maize to curb domestic flour prices while exporting grain under regional agreements. These moves, alongside continued fertilizer support that led to a record 11.7 million tonne maize harvest in 2023/24, ensured robust supply for the milling sector even as trade flows were adjusted by neighboring Kenya's duty-free import window.

Production maize flour and cereals in Tanzania

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Tanzania was among the world's leading producers of maize flour and cereals from 2017 to 2020, ranking 12th globally by production volume.

Top producers of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Tanzania's maize flour and cereals production increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 3 800 K t, marking a robust 15.2% rise compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 17%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 5.4%. The lowest production was recorded in 2018 at 3 070 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 5.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Tanzania in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports maize flour and cereals from Tanzania

Exports in kind, t

The export market for maize flour and cereals from Tanzania showed significant volatility during these years. Exports reached their lowest point in 2018 at 21 t, then surged to a peak of 35 149 t in 2019, representing a dramatic 166 309.8% increase. In 2020, exports fell sharply to 15 174 t, a 56.8% drop from the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2018 with a 97.7% decrease.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tanzania in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Tanzania's exports of maize flour and cereals were primarily directed towards Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which together accounted for 81.4% of total flows, with other destinations playing a secondary role.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tanzania in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The export market in value terms exhibited an unstable trend throughout this period. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 279 K $ US, followed by a peak of 8 403 K $ US in 2019, representing a 2 909.6% increase. In 2020, exports declined to 4 934 K $ US, down 41.3% from 2019, with fluctuations of up to 30 times between the high and low points.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tanzania in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Kenya were the key partners for Tanzania's exports in value terms. Uganda accounted for 38.2%, the Democratic Republic of the Congo for 32.5%, and Kenya for 21.3%, together making up 92.0% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tanzania in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize flour and cereals to Tanzania

Imports in kind, t

Tanzania's imports of maize flour and cereals showed volatility over the observed period. Imports hit their lowest point in 2019 at 328 t, with a 57.4% decline that year. In 2020, imports rebounded to 1 150 t, a 250.6% increase from the previous year, while the peak was in 2017, resulting in a fivefold gap between the high and low points.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tanzania in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Uganda and Turkey clearly dominated Tanzania's import structure for maize flour and cereals in kind, with other countries forming the remaining share.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tanzania in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Tanzania's imports of maize flour and cereals in value terms declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports were recorded at 111 K $ US, an 18.3% decrease compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports fell by 75.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of -37.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tanzania in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

In 2017 to 2020, Uganda, Turkey, and India accounted for the largest share of Tanzania's imports in value terms. Uganda contributed 38.4%, Turkey 37.2%, and India 12.2%, together comprising 87.8% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tanzania in value, 2017-2020