Maize flour and cereals market in South Africa

Earlier Report Observations

South Africa's maize flour and cereals market volume declined from 4.8 million tons in 2018 to 3.0 million tons in 2021. This contraction was driven by reduced maize production due to drought and heat in key growing areas during 2018 and 2019, which lowered yields, and by rising input costs, particularly for electricity, which pressured millers' operations. Increased exports of maize to international markets also limited domestic availability during this period.

The market recovered to 3.3 million tons by 2023, supported by rising global demand for maize in animal feed and biofuels, which stimulated local production. Structural shifts saw smaller millers gain market share, while increased competition led Tiger Brands to sell its maize milling asset due to profitability pressures. Investment in processing and the emergence of value-added products like extruded snacks provided additional market momentum.

In 2024, El Niño-induced weather events caused a drop in white maize production, leading to higher local prices and increased imports of yellow maize. By 2025, the industry adapted with larger maize crops, continued expansion of grain storage capacity, and a trend of milling closer to farming areas to reduce transport costs, all amid ongoing enforcement of product grading and marking regulations.

Production maize flour and cereals in South Africa

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Between 2018 and 2021, South Africa ranked ninth globally in the production of maize flour and cereals.

Top producers of maize flour and cereals, 2018-2021

World map of production of maize flour and cereals, 2018-2021

South Africa's production of maize flour and cereals fell for the third year in a row. In 2021, the country produced 3 362 thousand tonnes, marking an 8.6% decrease from the previous year. Over the 2018-2021 period, production dropped by 33.9%, which translates to an average annual decline of 12.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Following a two-year downturn, maize flour and cereals production in South Africa saw an uptick. In 2021, the output was valued at 1 164 million US dollars, a 2.4% increase from the year before. However, from 2018 to 2021, production fell by 21.7%, averaging a 7.8% annual decrease. The lowest value was recorded in 2020 at 1 136 million US dollars, with the sharpest drop of 22.3% occurring that same year.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Exports maize flour and cereals from South Africa

Exports in kind, K t

After two years of growth, the volume of maize flour and cereals exported from South Africa declined. In 2021, exports totaled 418.2 thousand tonnes, a 24.6% decrease compared to the previous year. Over the 2018-2021 period, exports rose by 26.5%, with an average annual growth rate of 8.2%. The peak was reached in 2020 at 554.5 thousand tonnes, when exports surged by 37.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Lesotho, Mozambique, and Angola remained the primary buyers of maize flour and cereals from South Africa, accounting for 25.8%, 23.5%, and 16.7% of exports in kind, respectively. Together, they made up 66.0% of total exports in kind.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

Following a two-year increase, maize flour and cereals exports from South Africa decreased. In 2021, exports were valued at 144.7 million US dollars, a significant 15.5% drop year-over-year. Between 2018 and 2021, exports grew by 49.8%, averaging a 14.4% annual rise. The highest value was recorded in 2020 at 171.3 million US dollars, with the largest increase of 40.4% occurring that year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Throughout 2018-2021, Lesotho, Mozambique, and Angola continued to be the main markets for South Africa's maize flour and cereals exports in value terms, with shares of 24.9%, 24.6%, and 15.4%, respectively. Collectively, they represented 65.0% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021

Imports maize flour and cereals to South Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Maize flour and cereals imports into South Africa rose for the second consecutive year. In 2021, imports amounted to 12.9 thousand tonnes, a modest 7.6% increase from 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, imports grew by 7.7%, with an average annual growth rate of 2.5%. The lowest volume was in 2019 at 11.9 thousand tonnes, when imports dipped by 0.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Between 2018 and 2021, Botswana, Lesotho, and Germany led as the top suppliers of maize flour and cereals to South Africa, contributing 40.9%, 28.3%, and 13.8% of imports in kind, respectively. Their combined share reached 83.0% of total imports in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

Maize flour and cereals imports into South Africa increased for the third year in a row. In 2021, imports were recorded at 5.2 million US dollars, up 12.3% from the previous year. From 2018 to 2021, imports surged by 47.6%, averaging a 13.8% annual growth rate.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

In 2018-2021, Botswana, Lesotho, and Germany continued to be the main suppliers of maize flour and cereals to South Africa in value terms, with shares of 19.3%, 19.1%, and 16.2%, respectively. Together, they accounted for 54.6% of total imports in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021