Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Ethiopia

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, Ethiopia's wheat and meslin flour and cereals market volume first expanded then contracted slightly. In 2019, the government's introduction of the Franco-Valuta import scheme allowed private importers to bring in wheat and wheat flour duty-free, facilitating imports. Concurrently, investments in agricultural inputs and technologies raised wheat yields to 3.0 tons per hectare, boosting domestic production and contributing to market growth. The following year, however, persistent shortages of improved seeds and fertilizers, worsened by limited foreign currency availability and rising international prices, constrained production, leading to a minor decline in total market volume.

Between 2021 and 2023, the market experienced a sharp increase followed by stabilization. A significant expansion of wheat cultivated area by 187,000 hectares in 2021, coupled with a yield increase to 3.1 tons per hectare, drove production higher. Imports also surged that year, supported by the ongoing Franco-Valuta framework. By 2022, although the wheat area expanded by a further 600,000 hectares, increased competition for water resources due to a shift in irrigation away from cereals likely tempered growth, and a steep drop in imports led to a small market contraction. In 2023, policy reforms including the termination of the Franco-Valuta scheme and the imposition of a 25% tariff on imported wheat flour altered import dynamics, while overall consumption continued to rise amid declining per capita consumption due to higher prices and currency depreciation.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Ethiopia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Ethiopia ranked 15th globally in the production of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals.

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

After two years of growth, Ethiopia's production of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals declined. In 2020, the country produced 5 498 K t, marking a 2.4% decrease from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, production rose by 14.3%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.6%. The highest production level was recorded in 2019 at 5 632 K t, which also saw the largest annual increase of 11.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Ethiopia

Exports in kind, K t

The data shows irregular changes, pointing to a volatile market environment. Import levels varied significantly, with a 30-fold difference between the low in 2017 and the high in 2018. In 2020, Ethiopia's cross-border shipments of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals amounted to 0.1 K t, representing a substantial decline of 19.6% compared to 2019. The peak value was recorded in 2018 at 0.3 K t. The largest decrease occurred in 2019 at 62.2%, while the largest increase was in 2018 at 2 937.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Djibouti accounted for 88.3% of Ethiopia's total exports in kind, with the remaining flows distributed among a broad group of smaller countries.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The market exhibited volatility over the observed period. Exports varied by a factor of 5.6, from a low in 2017 to a high in 2020. In 2020, Ethiopia's exports of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals reached 124 K US$, indicating a sharp improvement of 125.2% over the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 36.1%, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 287.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Djibouti and the United States together absorbed 88.0% of Ethiopia's total exports in value terms for wheat, meslin flour, and cereals, with the remainder scattered across smaller markets.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Ethiopia

Imports in kind, K t

Ethiopia's imports of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports amounted to 104.6 K t, showing a steep gain of 36.6% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 190.7%, equating to an annualized rate of 42.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Egypt (58.1% of imports in kind), Turkey (18.2%), and Ukraine (10.7%) were the principal suppliers of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals to Ethiopia, jointly accounting for 86.9% of total imports in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Volatility characterized the market behavior during these years. Imports changed by a multiple of 2.5, from a trough in 2017 to a peak in 2019. In 2020, Ethiopia's imports of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals reached 25 442 K US$, reflecting a loss of 37.5% compared to 2019. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 40 684 K US$. The largest increase occurred in 2018 at 109.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Egypt (53.0% of imports in value terms), Ukraine (19.0%), and Turkey (11.2%) remained the principal suppliers of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals to Ethiopia, jointly accounting for 83.1% of total imports in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020