Maize flour and cereals market in Ethiopia

Earlier Report Observations

The maize flour and cereals market in Ethiopia contracted to 5.7 million tons in 2019, hampered by production constraints such as soil degradation, high input costs, and delayed access to agricultural services. A recovery to 5.9 million tons followed in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic bolstered demand for affordable staple grains, with maize prices remaining firm due to supply pressures and its role as a key food security crop.

Market expansion continued, reaching 6.0 million tons in 2021 supported by yield-enhancing agricultural interventions led by the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency. Further growth to 6.3 million tons by 2023 was propelled by the government's approval of genetically engineered corn varieties with significantly higher yield potential and sustained public investments in cereal production under broader food self-sufficiency policies.

Production maize flour and cereals in Ethiopia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Ethiopia ranked 6th globally in the production of maize flour and cereals.

Top producers of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Ethiopia's production of maize flour and cereals rebounded after a two-year decline. In 2020, the country produced 5 922 K t, marking a 3.9% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, overall production decreased by 3.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%. The lowest production level was in 2019 at 5 700 K t, while the steepest drop occurred in 2018 with a 3.6% decline.

Annual dynamics of production in Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports maize flour and cereals from Ethiopia

Exports in kind, t

The data shows irregular changes, pointing to a volatile market environment. Exports varied significantly, with a 3.6-fold difference between the minimum in 2018 and the maximum in 2020. In 2020, Ethiopia exported 236 t of maize flour and cereals, representing a substantial gain of 174.0% from the previous year. The lowest export volume was in 2018 at 66 t, which also saw the largest decline of 32.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Sudan, South Africa, and the United States were the leading destinations for Ethiopia's maize flour and cereals exports in kind. Sudan accounted for 27.5% of exports, South Africa for 22.2%, and the United States for 19.4%, together making up 69.1% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Maize flour and cereals exports from Ethiopia increased for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports reached 298 K $ US, a 65.9% gain over the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 48.5%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 14.1%. The lowest value was in 2018 at 156 K $ US, which also experienced the largest decline of 22.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, the United States, South Africa, and the Netherlands were the top markets for Ethiopia's maize flour and cereals exports in value terms. The United States led with 32.1% of exports, followed by South Africa at 19.4%, and the Netherlands at 10.5%, collectively accounting for 62.0% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize flour and cereals to Ethiopia

Imports in kind, t

Market behavior during these years was marked by volatility. Imports peaked in 2018 and hit their lowest point in 2020, with a 6.6-fold gap between these years. In 2020, Ethiopia imported 548 t of maize flour and cereals, down 57.0% from 2019. The highest import volume was in 2018 at 3 620 t, while the largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 64.8% drop. The most significant increase was in 2018, rising by 255.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, three key markets—Denmark, Egypt, and Turkey—together absorbed 79.0% of Ethiopia's total imports in kind of maize flour and cereals.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Noticeable fluctuations characterized market performance during this period. Imports reached their maximum in 2018 and fell to their lowest point in 2017, with a 2.6-fold difference. In 2020, Ethiopia imported 577 K $ US of maize flour and cereals, reflecting a sharp reduction of 40.2% compared to 2019. The highest value was in 2018 at 1 482 K $ US, which also saw the largest increase of 158.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Over 2017-2020, the United Arab Emirates, Denmark, and Turkey stood out as the main markets for Ethiopia's imports in value terms. The United Arab Emirates accounted for 33.1% of imports, Denmark for 23.9%, and Turkey for 16.3%, together representing 73.3% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020