Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Tajikistan

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Tajikistan expanded from 1 100 thousand tonnes in 2018 to 1 142 thousand tonnes in 2019. This initial growth was supported by state-led food security initiatives, including organized harvest storage to build long-term reserves and fairs to distribute flour at accessible prices, which helped maintain stable consumption. Regional trade dynamics also contributed, as active wheat and flour supplies from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan increased import availability, facilitating market growth despite reported trade barriers.

Global factors began to influence the market significantly in the early 2020s. In 2021, rising export duties in Russia and adverse regional weather conditions constrained wheat supplies and elevated prices, leading to a slight contraction in market volume to 1 145 thousand tonnes. The situation transformed in 2022 following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which triggered a surge in global wheat prices and fertilizer shortages. This price shock stimulated domestic flour production in Tajikistan, supported by increased wheat imports, driving the market volume up to 1 203 thousand tonnes.

Market growth continued, reaching 1 216 thousand tonnes in 2023. This was underpinned by a sustained increase in wheat imports, primarily from Kazakhstan, which supplied about 93% of the flour imported via dedicated enterprises. Price stabilization after the 2022 volatility further supported market volume, as domestic processing of imported wheat helped meet demand.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Tajikistan

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Tajikistan's production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals declined after two years of growth. In 2020, output was broadly stable at 1 053 K t compared to 2019. Production reached its peak in 2019 at 1 054 K t, with the largest annual increase of 5.6% occurring in 2018. Overall, from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 6.2%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 2.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Tajikistan's production value of wheat and meslin flour and cereals increased following a two-year decline. In 2020, output was valued at 282.3 M $ US, up 4.5% from the previous year. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 270.1 M $ US, with the largest annual decline of 22.8% in 2018. Over the 2017-2020 period, production value decreased by 24.6%, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of -9.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Tajikistan

Exports in kind, K t

Tajikistan's exports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals showed noticeable fluctuations from 2017 to 2020. The lowest volume was recorded in 2017, while exports peaked in 2019 at 3.1 K t, reflecting a 23-fold difference between these years. In 2020, exports totaled 0.5 K t, marking a sharp reduction of 85.1% compared to 2019. The largest annual increase of 639.6% occurred in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Afghanistan was the primary destination for Tajikistan's exports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in kind, accounting for 93.6% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Tajikistan's export value of wheat and meslin flour and cereals was volatile between 2017 and 2020. The minimum value was recorded in 2017, while exports reached their maximum in 2019 at 802 K $ US, showing a 15-fold shift. In 2020, exports amounted to 125 K $ US, which is 84.4% lower than in 2019. The largest annual increase of 440.8% was observed in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Over the 2017-2020 period, Afghanistan consistently served as the main outlet for Tajikistan's exports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in value terms, absorbing 97.1% of total exports.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Tajikistan

Imports in kind, K t

Tajikistan's imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals increased for the second consecutive year in 2020, totaling 104.8 K t, which represents a 15.3% uptick compared to 2019. The minimum volume was recorded in 2018 at 54.3 K t, with the largest annual decline of 12.1% also in 2018, while the largest increase of 67.2% occurred in 2019. Overall, from 2017 to 2020, imports grew by 69.6%, equating to an annualized rate of 19.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, imports in kind of wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Tajikistan were largely concentrated on Kazakhstan, which accounted for 89.2% of total flows, with other countries forming the remainder.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Tajikistan's import value of wheat and meslin flour and cereals rose for the second year in a row in 2020, reaching 28 788 K $ US, a strong increase of 20.2% year-over-year. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 14 339 K $ US, with the largest annual decline of 17.8% also in 2018, while the largest increase of 67.0% was in 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 65.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Kazakhstan remained the dominant source for Tajikistan's imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in value terms, holding an 81.2% share of total flows, while the remainder was fragmented across other markets.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020