Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Armenia

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2021, the market for wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Armenia was characterized by high import dependence and fluctuations in domestic production. In 2018, low wheat self‑sufficiency, at about 33%, and rising input costs for fertilizers and diesel limited domestic supply, maintaining reliance on imports. By 2019, the market became concentrated, with two private firms controlling over 40% of flour trade, while wheat‑flour exports collapsed, reflecting weak processing capacity. In 2020, government‑backed seed‑selection programs and FAO delivery of winter‑wheat seeds supported a 13% increase in flour production, and wheat imports rose by approximately 6%, leading to a recovery in market volume. However, in 2021, the wheat harvest fell to a five‑year low, reducing self‑sufficiency to 26.4%, which triggered rising domestic flour prices and a contraction in overall consumption.

The market dynamics shifted in 2022‑2023 due to external trade shocks and domestic policy interventions. In March 2022, Russia's temporary ban on wheat exports to EAEU members, including Armenia, caused panic buying and price spikes. In response, the Armenian government launched a program to expand winter‑wheat acreage on uncultivated land, while an increase in VAT on flour to 20% shifted consumption toward more expensive imported wheat. These factors contributed to a stabilization of market volume in 2022. In 2023, Armenia enacted a six‑month ban on exports of wheat and other grains to non‑EAEU markets, and the transitional period for EAEU technical regulations on food labeling ended. These developments coincided with a sharp rise in flour imports to 65.9 K t and a recovery in production to 246.0 K t, driving the market volume to a significant 311.7 K t.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Armenia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

In 2020, Armenia produced 265.3 K t of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, showing a modest 5.0% increase compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 6.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.2%. The largest decline occurred in 2019, at 0.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in Armenia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Armenia's wheat and meslin flour and cereals production volume increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 158.3 M $ US, which is 11.2% higher than the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production rose by 54.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Armenia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Armenia

Exports in kind, t

The market showed an unstable trend throughout the period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2019 at 56 t and peaked in 2020 at 202 t, marking a 3.6-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Armenia's export volume increased by 259.9% year-on-year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019, at 61.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Armenia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia, Iraq, and the United States remained the main buyers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Armenia, accounting for 51.9%, 22.1%, and 20.3% of exports in kind, respectively. Together, they represented 94.3% of total exports in kind.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Armenia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Volatility characterized the market during these years. Exports bottomed in 2019 at 32 K $ US and peaked in 2020 at 120 K $ US, showing a 3.8-fold difference. In 2020, Armenia's export value increased by 281.2% compared to the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019, at 53.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Armenia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Russia, the United States, and Iraq formed the core group of markets for exports in value terms, accounting for 50.4%, 25.0%, and 16.0% of exports, respectively. Together, they represented 91.4% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Armenia in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Armenia

Imports in kind, t

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. Imports peaked in 2018 at 35 331 t and reached their lowest point in 2017, with a 1.7-fold difference between these years. In 2020, foreign supplies to Armenia amounted to 21 165 t, representing a moderate 6.1% decline compared to the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019, at 36.2%, while the largest increase occurred in 2018, at 74.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Armenia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia dominated the partner structure of imports in kind, consistently accounting for 96.8% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Armenia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Wheat and meslin flour and cereals imports to Armenia declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, Armenia imported approximately 5 747 K $ US, representing an 8.9% reduction compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 23.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.4%. The maximum value was recorded in 2018 at 6 339 K $ US, with the largest increase in that year at 36.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Armenia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Russia was by far the main destination for imports in value terms of wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Armenia, accounting for 95.4% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Armenia in value, 2017-2020