Unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee market in Ethiopia

Earlier Report Observations

Ethiopia's market for unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee showed considerable volatility from 2018 to 2023. Starting at 462.8 thousand tons in 2018, volume dropped sharply to 313.9 thousand tons in 2019, then rose to 353.5 thousand tons in 2020 before falling again over the next two years. The market rebounded in 2023, reaching 324.5 thousand tons.

The increase in market volume during 2023 was underpinned by strong domestic consumption, which absorbed around 50% of national production. Concurrently, the Ethiopian government's enforcement of the Coffee Quality Control and Marketing Proclamation bolstered quality standards and traceability, enhancing the sector's international reputation.

In 2024, the coffee sector faced a transformed landscape due to the floating of the Ethiopian Birr in July and the impending EU Deforestation Regulation, which mandates deforestation-free supply chains for exports to the European Union. These developments introduced both volatility and a push toward greater traceability and compliance.

Production unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee in Ethiopia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Ethiopia was one of the world's top producers of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee from 2017 to 2020, ranking fifth globally by production volume.

Top producers of unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee, 2017-2020

World map of production of unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee, 2017-2020

In 2020, Ethiopia produced 584.8 thousand tons of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee, showing a slight improvement of 2.0% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, production increased by 6.4%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 2.1%. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a decrease of 0.1%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2018 at 4.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

After two consecutive years of decline, unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee production in Ethiopia rebounded. In 2020, the output was valued at 2 012 million US dollars, marking a robust increase of 14.5% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production decreased by 9.1%, equating to an annualized decline of 3.1%. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 1 757 million US dollars, and the largest decline occurred in 2018 with a drop of 12.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee from Ethiopia

Exports in kind, K t

The data shows irregular changes, reflecting a volatile market environment. Import levels fluctuated significantly, with a 2.3-fold difference between the low of 2018 and the high of 2019. In 2020, Ethiopia exported 231.3 thousand tons of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee, representing a notable year-over-year drop of 10.9%. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 111.2 thousand tons, while the maximum was in 2019 at 259.6 thousand tons. The largest decline occurred in 2018 with a decrease of 42.7%, and the largest increase was in 2019 at 133.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, exports of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee from Ethiopia were widely dispersed across partner countries. Saudi Arabia accounted for 19.2% of exports in kind, Germany for 16.4%, and Japan for 10.8%, but together these three countries represented only 46.4% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

There were noticeable fluctuations in market performance during this period. Exports reached their maximum in 2020 and fell to their lowest point in 2018, with a fluctuation of 2.1 times between these years. In 2020, foreign supplies of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee from Ethiopia amounted to 795.8 million US dollars, remaining virtually unchanged year-over-year. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 375.9 million US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2018 with a drop of 51.9%, while the largest increase was in 2019 at 111.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017–2020, Saudi Arabia was the largest buyer with 17.2% of exports in value terms, followed by the United States at 14.7% and Germany at 13.7%. However, their combined share reached only 45.5% of total exports in value terms, with the remaining 54.5% distributed among many other partners.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020

Imports unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee to Ethiopia

Imports in kind, K t

The market exhibited an unstable trend throughout the timeframe. Volumes peaked in 2017 and dropped to a minimum in 2018, showing a 548-fold shift between these years. In 2020, unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee volumes in Ethiopia were recorded at 0.0 thousand tons, equivalent to a sharp rise of 716.7% compared to 2019. The minimum value was also recorded in 2018 at 0.0 thousand tons, and the largest decline occurred in 2018 with a decrease of 99.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Thailand and Brazil each accounted for 2.2% of imports in kind, while Italy represented 0.5%. Together, these three countries remained the leading destinations in the import structure, with a combined share of 4.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. Volumes reached their maximum in 2017 and dropped to a minimum in 2018, with a 667-fold shift between these years. In 2020, cross-border shipments of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee in Ethiopia reached 0.0 million US dollars, which is 110.8% above the previous year. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 0.0 million US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2018 with a drop of 99.8%, and the largest increase was in 2019 at 965.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017–2020, the three largest markets—Thailand, Italy, and Brazil—remained central to imports in value terms, together accounting for 4.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020