Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse market in Northern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The North African unmanufactured tobacco market volume grew from 85.3 K t in 2018 to 136.4 K t in 2019, fueled by increased consumption driven by the launch of new tobacco products in the region and tobacco companies' commercial practices of selling cigarettes with higher nicotine content.

A subsequent contraction followed, with the market falling to 110.0 K t in 2020 and then more sharply to 53.7 K t in 2021, before stabilizing near 50.0 K t in 2022.

Market volume saw a modest increase to 50.3 K t in 2023, supported by expanded tobacco cultivation in Africa and a rising number of adult consumers. In 2024, Japan Tobacco International prepared to operationalize a new production plant in Morocco with an annual capacity of nearly 5 billion sticks, aiming to strengthen local manufacturing, while Moroccan authorities implemented a five-year plan with scheduled increases in tobacco excise taxes.

Production unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Northern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

World map of production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

After two consecutive years of growth, the production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Northern Africa experienced a decline. In 2020, production reached 16 131 tonnes, marking a significant decrease of 19.6% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, overall production increased by 9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.9%. The peak production level was recorded in 2019 at 20 057 tonnes, which also saw the largest annual increase of 31.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Northern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

The market demonstrated considerable volatility throughout the observed period. Export volumes fluctuated significantly, with a sevenfold difference between the low point in 2017 and the high point in 2018. In 2020, cross-border shipments of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Northern Africa totaled 0.1 thousand tonnes, representing a substantial year-over-year decline of 77.3%. The maximum export volume was recorded in 2018 at 0.6 thousand tonnes, which also experienced the largest annual increase of 603.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Poland, Bulgaria, and Belgium consistently maintained their positions as the leading destinations for Northern Africa's exports in kind. Poland accounted for 40.9% of exports, Bulgaria for 28.0%, and Belgium for 21.3%. Together, these three countries represented 90.3% of total export flows during this period.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. Export values reached their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2018, with the peak value being 3.8 times higher than the trough. In 2020, Northern Africa exported 0.7 million US dollars worth of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, reflecting a 64.1% decrease compared to 2019. The maximum export value was recorded in 2018 at 2.1 million US dollars, which also saw the largest annual increase of 281.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Poland, Bulgaria, and Belgium consistently held the top positions in the country structure of exports in value terms. Poland represented 40.6% of export value, Bulgaria 25.2%, and Belgium 19.1%. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 84.8% of total export flows during this timeframe.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Northern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Following two years of growth, import volumes of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse into Northern Africa declined. In 2020, imports stood at 94.0 thousand tonnes, down 19.6% from the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 125.3%, with a compound annual growth rate of 31.1%. The maximum import volume was recorded in 2019 at 116.9 thousand tonnes, while the largest annual increase occurred in 2018 at 69.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, India, Brazil, and Malawi continued to serve as the primary suppliers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Northern Africa. India accounted for 23.3% of imports in kind, Brazil for 18.8%, and Malawi for 12.7%. Together, these three countries constituted 54.8% of total imports during this period.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The market exhibited signs of volatility over the observed period. Import values dropped to their minimum in 2017 and climbed to their maximum in 2019, with the peak value being 2.9 times higher than the trough. In 2020, Northern Africa's imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse amounted to 411.0 million US dollars, showing a strong year-over-year decline of 15.3%. The maximum import value was recorded in 2019 at 485.3 million US dollars, while the largest annual increase occurred in 2018 at 92.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, India, Brazil, and Malawi remained the principal suppliers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Northern Africa in value terms. India represented 24.1% of import value, Brazil 16.5%, and Malawi 12.8%. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 53.4% of total imports during this timeframe.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020