Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse market in Southern Asia

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Southern Asia fluctuated between 964 and 1 004 thousand tonnes from 2018 to 2023, peaking in 2021. After 2021, the volume contracted to 945 thousand tonnes in 2022 and 937 thousand tonnes in 2023, a decline supported by a sustained increase in exports. This export growth was incentivized by the Indian government's extension of the Interest Equalization Scheme until 2024, which provided financial support for shipments abroad.

In value terms, the market showed sharper movements, dropping to 3 763 million US dollars in 2020 and again to 3 342 million in 2022 before recovering to 3 656 million in 2023. Tax policy changes, including a GST rate realignment effective from April 2024, began influencing market pricing and structure toward the end of the period, while ongoing tobacco control regulations shaped domestic consumption patterns.

Throughout the period, India strengthened its position as a top global exporter of tobacco, surpassing Brazil by 2024. The international market context also saw the emergence of new product segments like nicotine pouches, and evolving sustainability standards in key export markets such as the EU presented both challenges and opportunities for regional producers.

Production unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Southern Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

World map of production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

Following two years of growth, unmanufactured tobacco and refuse production in Southern Asia experienced a decline. In 2019, production reached its peak at 1 012 K t, marking a 4.4% increase from the previous year. However, by 2020, output had fallen to 991 K t, representing a 2.1% decrease year-over-year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production overall increased by 2.6%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 0.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

After two consecutive years of expansion, the value of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse production in Southern Asia saw a downturn. In 2018, production value surged by 29.2%, reaching a high of 4 978 M $ US in 2019. By 2020, however, the value had dropped to 3 811 M $ US, reflecting a significant 23.4% decline compared to the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, the overall production value increased by 18.1%, averaging an annual growth rate of 5.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Southern Asia

Exports in kind, t

After two years of decline, exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Southern Asia rebounded. In 2019, exports hit their lowest point at 30 639 t, with an 18.9% decrease from the prior year. By 2020, exports had risen to 39 384 t, showing a strong 28.5% year-over-year gain. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports increased by 3.7%, equating to an average annual growth rate of 1.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Southern Asia were distributed across a wide range of partner countries. Belgium accounted for 23.2% of exports in kind, the United States for 8.9%, and the United Arab Emirates for 6.5%. Together, these three countries represented only 38.6% of total export flows, indicating a highly diversified market.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2018, exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Southern Asia reached their highest value at 162.4 M $ US, with a substantial 32.6% increase from the previous year. However, in 2019, exports declined by 10.5%. By 2020, exports had recovered slightly to 150.9 M $ US, showing a moderate 3.8% year-over-year increase. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports grew by 23.2%, averaging an annual growth rate of 7.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the value of exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Southern Asia was spread across numerous countries. Belgium led with 27.0% of exports in value terms, followed by Hungary at 9.6%, and the Netherlands at 6.4%. Collectively, these three countries accounted for just 43.1% of total export flows, highlighting the absence of a dominant trading partner.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Southern Asia

Imports in kind, t

Imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse into Southern Asia declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports stood at 12 050 t, representing a 28.0% drop from the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 52.5%, which corresponds to an average annual decline of 22.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

An analysis of imports in kind from 2017 to 2020 reveals a broad distribution across many markets. Brazil accounted for 10.3% of imports in kind, the United Arab Emirates for 7.4%, and Indonesia for 4.9%. Together, these three countries made up only 22.6% of total import flows, with the remaining 77.4% spread among other partners.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Cross-border shipments of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse into Southern Asia fell for the third year in a row. In 2020, imports were recorded at 115.7 M $ US, indicating a robust 17.2% year-over-year decline. From 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 47.4%, with an average annual decline rate of 19.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over the 2017-2020 period, the country breakdown of imports in value terms remained scattered. Indonesia accounted for 17.5% of imports in value terms, Brazil for 12.2%, and Germany for 6.4%. Together, these three countries represented just 36.1% of total import flows, with no single partner emerging as clearly dominant.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020