Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse market in Japan

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Japan remained stable at around 45 900 t from 2018 to 2019, despite increasing anti-tobacco measures. The Ministry of Health set a target to reduce the smoking rate to 12% by 2022, implementing mandatory health warnings on packaging and tightening advertising regulations, which pressured consumption.

A significant drop in market volume to 36 000 t in 2020 was primarily driven by consumers shifting to heated tobacco products like IQOS, Ploom TECH, and glo, which use less traditional raw leaf. This shift accelerated through 2021 and 2022, fueled by growing demand for alternatives and major investments by Philip Morris International in heated tobacco, leading to a further contraction to 24 300 t by 2022, compounded by high taxes and strict regulation.

In 2023, the market volume rebounded by 37% to 33 300 t, coinciding with the rising popularity of innovative smokeless products and increased focus on sustainability, which prompted major players like JT Group to optimize supply chains for reduced-risk devices.

Production unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Japan

In kind, 2018-2021, t

Top producers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2018-2021

World map of production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2018-2021

Japan's production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse increased in 2021, following a two-year decline. The country produced 14 237 tonnes, marking a 3.6% gain from the previous year. However, looking at the broader period from 2018 to 2021, production fell by 16.2%, which translates to an annualized decrease of 5.7%. The lowest point was in 2020, with 13 748 tonnes, and that year also saw the steepest decline of 18.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Japan in kind, 2018-2021, t

Exports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Japan

Exports in kind, t

Export volumes showed significant fluctuations during this period. The lowest level was in 2021, with Japan exporting 1 843 tonnes of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, a sharp 60.3% drop from the year before. In contrast, exports peaked in 2020 at 4 647 tonnes, representing a 94.9% increase. This resulted in a 2.5-fold gap between the high in 2020 and the low in 2021.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Japan in kind, 2018-2021, t

From 2018 to 2021, France and Russia were the primary markets for Japan's exports in kind, together accounting for 80.3% of the total. Other partners made up the remaining share.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Japan in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

Export values were highly volatile over these years. The lowest point was in 2018, while the peak occurred in 2020, with a 12.9-fold difference between them. In 2021, Japan's exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse reached 13.0 million US dollars, down 16.1% from the previous year. The maximum value was recorded in 2020 at 15.5 million US dollars, which saw a substantial increase of 468.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Japan in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, the leading destinations for Japan's exports in value terms were the Philippines, with 35.3% of the total, France at 29.5%, and Asia, not elsewhere specified, at 23.0%. Together, these three accounted for 87.9% of all export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Japan in value, 2018-2021

Imports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Japan

Imports in kind, t

Japan's imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse declined for the third year in a row in 2021. The country imported a total of {value_last_year} tonnes, down 12.7% from 2020. Over the full period from 2018 to 2021, imports decreased by 27.3%, with an annualized rate of 10.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Japan in kind, 2018-2021, t

From 2018 to 2021, Brazil was the largest supplier of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Japan in kind, contributing 34.0% of imports, followed by the United States at 25.8% and Tanzania at 8.7%. Combined, these three sources made up 68.5% of total imports.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Japan in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

Imports in value terms fell for the second consecutive year in 2021. Japan imported {value_last_year} million US dollars worth of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, a 20.4% decrease from the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, imports dropped by 31%, equivalent to an annualized decline of 11.6%. The highest value was in 2019 at 217.7 million US dollars, which saw a modest increase of 0.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Japan in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Throughout 2018 to 2021, the United States, Brazil, and Tanzania remained the key sources for Japan's imports in value terms. The United States accounted for 35.0%, Brazil for 29.6%, and Tanzania for 7.4%, together representing 71.9% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Japan in value, 2018-2021