Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse market in Thailand

Earlier Report Observations

The domestic market for unmanufactured tobacco expanded by 20% to 61 108 t in 2019, largely due to a sharp drop in exports as the state-owned Thailand Tobacco Monopoly (TTM) faced intensified competition from foreign cigarettes and profit declines following the 2017 tax restructuring that moved cigarette levies to a compound rate. This tax change segmented the cigarette market into two price groups and prompted TTM to consolidate three factories into one at Rojana Industrial Park to improve production efficiency. The following year, market volume slipped 3% to 59 251 t as the COVID-19 pandemic altered consumer behavior, raising health awareness and reducing tobacco consumption.

Continued pressure from the two-tier cigarette tax and rising retail prices further contracted the unmanufactured tobacco market, which fell 4% to 56 727 t in 2021 and another 6% to 53 631 t in 2022. During this period, TTM reported its lowest revenue in five years and lost 20–27% of its cigarette market share to imported brands, while higher cigarette taxes spurred a rise in illicit trade. In 2023, the market rebounded 6% to 57 072 t, though TTM still grappled with declining profits and ongoing tax-induced price hikes.

Production unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Thailand

In kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Thailand maintained the 14th position globally in terms of production volume for unmanufactured tobacco and refuse.

Top producers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

World map of production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

In 2020, Thailand produced 66 025 tonnes of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, showing little change compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production decreased by 3.4%, with an average annual decline of 1.2%. The most significant drop occurred in 2018, at 2.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Thailand in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2020, the output of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Thailand was valued at 225.9 million US dollars, representing a sharp decline of 11.0% from the prior year. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 253.8 million US dollars, which also saw the largest increase of 10.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Thailand in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Thailand

Exports in kind, t

The data shows irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. Export volumes reached their lowest point in 2019 at 5 252 tonnes and peaked in 2017, with a 3.5-fold difference between these years. In 2020, exports from Thailand amounted to 9 210 tonnes, marking a 75.3% year-on-year increase. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 69.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Thailand in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the partner structure for exports in kind remained fragmented. The Philippines accounted for 23.1% of exports, Laos for 11.5%, and the United States for 10.0%, together making up only 44.6% of total flows, with no single country holding a dominant share.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Thailand in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

After a two-year decline, exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Thailand increased. In 2020, exports totalled 31 510 thousand US dollars, a 56.1% rise compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 49.1%, with an average annual decline of 20.2%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 20 181 thousand US dollars, which also saw the largest drop of 66.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Thailand in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, exports in value terms were characterised by a broad spread across markets. The Philippines accounted for 28.9% of exports, the United States for 9.0%, and Indonesia for 8.0%, together comprising only 45.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Thailand in value, 2017-2020

Imports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Thailand

Imports in kind, t

The market exhibited an unstable trend throughout the period. Imports hit their lowest point in 2019 at 313 tonnes and peaked in 2020, with a 7.8-fold variation between these years. In 2020, imports into Thailand stood at 2 436 tonnes, indicating a sudden advance of 679.2% year-on-year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 83.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Thailand in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, virtually all imports in kind of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Thailand were associated with Laos, which accounted for 99.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Thailand in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

There were noticeable fluctuations in market performance during this period. Imports reached their trough in 2019 at 830 thousand US dollars and peaked in 2017, with a 7.5-fold gap. In 2020, Thailand's imports were recorded at 5 970 thousand US dollars, marking an abrupt rise of 619.4% compared to 2019. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 84.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Thailand in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Laos was by far the main source for imports in value terms of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Thailand, accounting for 95.2% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Thailand in value, 2017-2020