Semi-milled or wholly milled rice market in Madagascar

Earlier Report Observations

The market for semi-milled or wholly milled rice in Madagascar experienced variable volumes from 2018 to 2020. Domestic production held steady near 378 thousand tonnes annually, while imports fell from 558 thousand tonnes in 2018 to 398 thousand in 2019 before a slight rebound to 425 thousand in 2020. Consequently, the total market size contracted to 778 thousand tonnes in 2019 from 936 thousand the previous year, then recovered modestly to 803 thousand in 2020. This period saw the beginning of a gradual rise in national output, supported by expanding cultivated area and improving yields.

From 2021, domestic production entered a sustained growth phase, climbing from 400 thousand tonnes to 474 thousand by 2023. Imports surged to a peak of 711 thousand tonnes in 2022, driving the total market volume to 1.15 million tonnes that year. However, a sharp reduction in imports of over 40% to 409 thousand tonnes in 2023 caused the overall market size to fall to 882 thousand tonnes, despite higher local output. This turnaround was propelled by the launch of the National Rice Development Strategy III (SNDR III), targeting self-sufficiency by 2024, and by tangible advances in farming techniques, mechanization, and the spread of improved seeds that boosted local yields.

The push for self-sufficiency intensified into 2024, with rice imports dropping 53% year-on-year in the first half. Active intervention by the state procurement agency SPM to collect and redistribute local rice helped stabilize supply. The sector simultaneously navigated challenges from climate variability and higher input costs, countered by the introduction of drought-resistant rice varieties and enhanced irrigation infrastructure. The domestic supply share in total consumption rose from 79% in 2022 to 87% in 2023, underscoring the country's progress in replacing imports with homegrown production.

Production semi-milled or wholly milled rice in Madagascar

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, 2017-2020

Madagascar's production of semi-milled or wholly milled rice declined after two years of growth. In 2019, output reached 379.6 thousand tonnes, which was the highest level recorded during the period. In 2020, production remained relatively stable at 378.5 thousand tonnes, showing little change from the previous year. Over the entire 2017-2020 timeframe, production increased by 10.3%, representing an average annual growth rate of 3.3%. The most significant year-on-year increase occurred in 2018, when production rose by 10.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Madagascar in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports semi-milled or wholly milled rice from Madagascar

Exports in kind, K t

Export volumes showed considerable volatility throughout the period. The lowest point was recorded in 2018 at 0.0 thousand tonnes, while the peak occurred in 2017, creating a sixty-fold difference between these two years. In 2020, exports from Madagascar reached 0.0 thousand tonnes, representing an 8.0% increase compared to 2019. The most substantial decline took place in 2018, falling by 98.3%, while the largest increase occurred in 2019 with growth of 44.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Madagascar in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, the United States was the dominant destination for Madagascar's semi-milled or wholly milled rice exports, accounting for 89.0% of total shipments. Other countries each held significantly smaller market shares during this period.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Madagascar in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Export values displayed irregular patterns, indicating a volatile market environment. The highest value was recorded in 2017, while the lowest occurred in 2020, representing a ninety-fold difference between these extremes. In 2020, Madagascar's semi-milled or wholly milled rice exports amounted to 0.0 million US dollars, reflecting a sharp decline of 49.6% compared to the previous year. The most significant decrease took place in 2018 with a drop of 98.4%, while the largest increase occurred in 2019 with growth of 36.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Madagascar in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout the 2017-2020 period, the United States maintained a dominant position in Madagascar's semi-milled or wholly milled rice exports by value, consistently representing 92.6% of total export earnings.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Madagascar in value, 2017-2020

Imports semi-milled or wholly milled rice to Madagascar

Imports in kind, K t

Madagascar's imports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice reached 424.7 thousand tonnes in 2020, representing a measured increase of 6.7% compared to the previous year. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2019 at 398.0 thousand tonnes, while the peak occurred in 2018 with 558.1 thousand tonnes. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports decreased by 18.6%, equivalent to an average annual decline of 6.6%. The most substantial decrease took place in 2019 with a drop of 28.7%, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 with growth of 7.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Madagascar in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Pakistan, India, and Myanmar were the primary sources of Madagascar's semi-milled or wholly milled rice imports by volume. Pakistan accounted for 32.0% of imports, India represented 29.2%, and Myanmar contributed 20.8%. Together, these three countries supplied 82.0% of Madagascar's total rice imports during this period.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Madagascar in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2020, Madagascar's imports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice reached 154.9 million US dollars, representing a modest increase of 9.3% compared to the previous year. The lowest import value was recorded in 2019 at 141.6 million US dollars, while the peak occurred in 2018 with 224.4 million US dollars. Over the 2017-2020 period, import values decreased by 29.7%, equivalent to an average annual decline of 11.1%. The most substantial decrease took place in 2019 with a drop of 36.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Madagascar in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Pakistan, India, and Myanmar remained the principal suppliers of semi-milled or wholly milled rice to Madagascar by value. Pakistan accounted for 32.3% of import value, India represented 29.6%, and Myanmar contributed 18.8%. Collectively, these three countries supplied 80.6% of Madagascar's total rice import value during this period.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Madagascar in value, 2017-2020