Semi-milled or wholly milled rice market in Southern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for semi-milled or wholly milled rice in Southern Africa increased from 966 thousand tonnes in 2018 to 1 180 thousand tonnes in 2023, with notable growth in 2022 and 2023. This expansion was supported by a consistent reliance on rice imports, which account for nearly all domestic consumption, and was facilitated by stable or slightly decreasing global rice prices that made imported rice more accessible to consumers.

South Africa's rice market operates under the Agricultural Products Standards Act, which sets grading, packaging, and marking requirements for rice kernels. This regulatory framework, including the R44 of 2020 regulations, ensures quality standards but does not significantly alter the market's fundamental dependence on international suppliers. The market remains sensitive to global supply shifts, such as India's export restrictions on non-basmati white rice, which began in 2023 and affected worldwide availability and prices.

Consumer preferences in urban areas have increasingly favored rice, with spending on rice rising as part of household food budgets. In 2024, the value of rice imports continued to grow despite a slight dip in volume, reflecting moderated global prices and changes in input costs linked to international crude oil fluctuations. These factors underscore the market's responsiveness to external price movements and evolving consumption patterns.

Production semi-milled or wholly milled rice in Southern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, 2017-2020

In 2019, Southern Africa produced 3,143 tonnes of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, marking the lowest output in recent years with a 13.7% decline. However, production rebounded sharply in 2020, reaching 5,204 tonnes—a 65.6% increase compared to 2019. Over the entire 2017-2020 period, production grew by 50.4%, averaging a compound annual growth rate of 14.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports semi-milled or wholly milled rice from Southern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

Export volumes of semi-milled or wholly milled rice from Southern Africa showed significant volatility between 2017 and 2020. In 2019, exports bottomed out at 3,000 tonnes, following an 89.1% drop in 2018. The situation reversed dramatically in 2020, with exports surging to 66,000 tonnes—a 2,389.1% increase from the previous year. This created a 25-fold difference between the low in 2019 and the peak in 2020, highlighting the market's irregular nature.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, exports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice from Southern Africa were relatively diversified. Zimbabwe accounted for 5.4% of export volumes, the Democratic Republic of the Congo for 1.6%, and Zambia for 1.4%. Together, these three countries represented just 8.3% of total exports, indicating that flows were not heavily concentrated.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The value of semi-milled or wholly milled rice exports from Southern Africa rose for the third consecutive year in 2020, reaching $48.9 million—a modest 2.2% increase from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, export values grew by 6.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo were notable buyers of semi-milled or wholly milled rice from Southern Africa in value terms. Zimbabwe accounted for 5.2% of export value, Zambia for 1.2%, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo for 1.2%. Their combined share totaled only 7.6%, while the remaining 92.4% was distributed among numerous other trading partners.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports semi-milled or wholly milled rice to Southern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Imports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice into Southern Africa increased for the second year in a row in 2020. The lowest import volume occurred in 2018 at 970,000 tonnes, which represented a 3.5% decline that year. By 2020, imports had risen by 7.5% year-over-year. Over the 2017-2020 period, import volumes grew by 5.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Thailand and India dominated Southern Africa's imports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice in volume terms, jointly accounting for 88.7% of total imports. All other partner countries made up the remaining share.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The value of semi-milled or wholly milled rice imports into Southern Africa reached its lowest point in 2019 at $477.8 million, reflecting a 12.5% decline that year. In 2020, import value rebounded, increasing by 21.7% compared to the previous year. Overall, between 2017 and 2020, import values rose by 16.7%, equivalent to an annualized growth rate of 5.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, Thailand and India were the key sources for Southern Africa's imports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice in value terms, together representing 85.1% of total import value. Other countries accounted for the remainder.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020