Rye market Ukraine

Earlier Report Observations

Following a decline in 2019 due to a gradual reduction in sown areas, Ukraine's rye production rebounded sharply in 2020 as profitability rose to 14.4%, incentivizing output despite higher input costs. The market peaked in 2021 at 593.2 thousand tons, driven by the partial opening of export channels and access to new external markets in Spain, Turkey, and Poland, which bolstered demand. Domestic market volume grew throughout this period, supported by these production increases and fluctuating export levels.

The full-scale Russian invasion in 2022 fundamentally altered the market, imposing martial law, slashing profitability to 3.6%, and triggering government restrictions on rye exports. These wartime disruptions, coupled with a 20% drop in seed grain imports and logistical challenges, caused production and market volume to fall by over 40% that year.

The downturn continued into 2023 as profitability plunged to -18%, the lowest in a decade, exacerbated by a contraction of sown areas in northern regions due to hostilities and soaring energy and fuel costs. By 2024, production stabilized at a low level near 205 thousand tons, while the sown area for winter rye had shrunk 2.4 times compared to 2021, reflecting a sustained reduction in the sector's productive capacity.

Production rye Ukraine

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Ukraine ranked as the world's seventh-largest producer of rye.

Top producers of rye, 2017-2020

World map of production of rye, 2017-2020

Following a two-year decline, rye production in Ukraine rebounded. In 2020, the country produced 456.8 thousand tonnes of rye, marking a significant increase of 36.5% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, overall production decreased by 10.1%, which translates to an average annual decline of 3.5%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 334.7 thousand tonnes, while the sharpest drop occurred in 2018 with a 22.5% decrease.

Annual dynamics of production Ukraine in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports rye to Ukraine

Exports in kind, K t

The market displayed considerable volatility during the observed period. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2020, while the highest was in 2018, with a peak-to-trough ratio of 21 times. In 2020, Ukraine's rye exports amounted to 4.9 thousand tonnes, representing a 62.9% decline from the previous year. The maximum export volume was reached in 2018 at 103.9 thousand tonnes. The largest decrease occurred in 2019 with an 87.3% drop, whereas the most substantial increase was in 2018, surging by 315.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports to Ukraine in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Poland, Bangladesh, and Lithuania were the primary markets for Ukraine's rye exports in volume terms, accounting for 35.4%, 11.2%, and 10.7% of total exports, respectively. Together, these three countries represented 57.2% of all export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports to Ukraine in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The market showed an unstable trend throughout the timeframe. The lowest export value was observed in 2020, with the highest in 2018, reflecting a six-fold difference. In 2020, Ukraine exported rye worth 2 567 thousand US dollars, indicating a sharp drop of 33.4% compared to 2019. The maximum value was recorded in 2018 at 15 507 thousand US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 75.1% decrease, while the most significant increase was in 2018, rising by 299.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports to Ukraine in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Over the period from 2017 to 2020, Poland, Belarus, and Bangladesh emerged as the main markets for Ukraine's rye exports in value terms, contributing 29.0%, 19.6%, and 9.0% of total exports, respectively. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 57.5% of all export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports to Ukraine in value, 2017-2020

Imports rye in Ukraine

Imports in kind, K t

Market behavior was characterized by volatility during these years. The period from 2017 to 2019 saw a peak-to-trough amplitude of 16 times. In 2020, Ukraine's rye imports totaled 1.9 thousand tonnes, which is 38.1% lower than the previous year. The maximum import volume was recorded in 2019 at 3.0 thousand tonnes, with the largest increase occurring that same year at 642.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports in Ukraine in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Estonia, Germany, and Russia remained the key sources for Ukraine's rye imports in volume terms, representing 35.3%, 17.1%, and 16.1% of total imports, respectively. Together, these three countries accounted for 68.6% of all import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports in Ukraine in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Ukraine's rye import value increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports amounted to 1 291 thousand US dollars, showing a modest year-over-year improvement of 8.1%. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 155%, equivalent to an average annual rate of 36.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports in Ukraine in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Germany dominated Ukraine's rye imports in value terms, accounting for 71.7% of the total. The remaining volume was distributed among numerous countries, each with smaller individual shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports in Ukraine in value, 2017-2020