Rice market in India

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, India's rice market volume increased from 164.8 million tonnes to 168.1 million tonnes. This growth was supported by government Minimum Support Price (MSP) procurement policies, which incentivized production, and by rising exports of both Basmati and non-Basmati rice. Starting in the 2018-19 season, the allowance of rice for grain-based ethanol production created a new demand channel, though its full impact on supply dynamics unfolded in later years.

A surge in broken rice exports, which reached 15.8 million tonnes between April and August 2021, contributed to strong production and helped lift the domestic market volume to 174.0 million tonnes that year. However, by 2022, broken rice exports had multiplied over 40 times compared to 2019, straining domestic availability and coinciding with a slight dip in the market volume to 171.2 million tonnes. In response, the government imposed a ban on broken rice exports and a 20% duty on non-Basmati white rice in September 2022 to bolster domestic supplies and control food inflation.

Following the easing of the broken rice export ban in late 2022, the rice market volume rebounded sharply to 189.9 million tonnes in 2023. Strong domestic procurement and kharif season production, alongside the continued export duty on non-Basmati rice, retained more rice inside the country. The scaled-up distribution of fortified rice through government welfare schemes provided additional structured demand, while global supply factors kept international prices high, supporting India's export earnings from premium varieties.

Production rice in India

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

India ranked second globally in rice production between 2017 and 2020.

Top producers of rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of rice, 2017-2020

In 2020, India produced 182.7 million tonnes of rice, marking a moderate increase of 4.4% from the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 10.2%, which translates to an annualized rate of 3.3%. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 0.8%, while the most significant increase was in 2018, at 6.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in India in kind, 2017-2020, M t

In value, 2017-2020, B $ US

Following a two-year upward trend, India's rice production value declined. In 2020, the output was valued at 99.8 billion US dollars, reflecting a substantial reduction of 17.7% compared to the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production value increased by 3.1%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 1.0%. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 121.3 billion US dollars, and the largest increase was in 2018, at 14.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in India in value, 2017-2020, B $ US

Exports rice from India

Exports in kind, K t

After a two-year decline, India's rice exports rebounded. In 2020, exports totaled 14 611 thousand tonnes, up by 48.8% from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports increased by 20.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.4%. The lowest value was in 2019 at 9 819 thousand tonnes, which also saw the largest decline of 15.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from India in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Benin were notable buyers of Indian rice, accounting for 9.4%, 8.8%, and 6.4% of exports in kind, respectively. However, their combined share reached only 24.6% of total exports in kind, indicating they were not dominant in the market.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from India in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, India exported 7 980 million US dollars worth of rice, representing a significant rise of 17.3% compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports increased by 12.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.1%. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 6 801 million US dollars, which also experienced the largest decline of 7.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from India in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Indian rice was supplied to a diverse range of markets. Even the largest destinations—Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq—together accounted for only 35.2% of total exports in value terms.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from India in value, 2017-2020

Imports rice to India

Imports in kind, K t

The market exhibited volatility during the observed period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2018, with a 3.5-fold difference between these years. In 2020, India imported 5 thousand tonnes of rice, showing a substantial fall of 22.3% from the previous year. The maximum value was recorded in 2018 at 7 thousand tonnes, which also saw the largest increase of 248.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to India in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Analysis of imports in kind from 2017 to 2020 reveals a broad distribution across many markets. Sudan, Thailand, and Spain accounted for 17.7%, 15.8%, and 12.8% of imports in kind, respectively, but together they represented only 46.4% of total flows, with the remaining 53.6% coming from other partners.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to India in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Volatility characterized the market during these years. Imports varied from a low in 2017 to a high in 2019, with a 6.8-fold difference. In 2020, rice shipments to India from abroad amounted to 3 million US dollars, marking a sharp decline of 70.4% from a year earlier. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 11 million US dollars, and the largest increase occurred in 2018, at 168.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to India in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Russia, Thailand, and Spain were the primary suppliers of rice to India, accounting for 36.5%, 16.4%, and 9.6% of imports in value terms, respectively. Together, they represented 62.5% of total imports in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to India in value, 2017-2020