Milled rice and broken rice market in India

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2020, India's milled rice market volume expanded, supported by government schemes like PM Kisan SAMPADA that encouraged modernization and technological upgrades in the fragmented milling sector. This period also saw the allowance of broken rice for ethanol production from the 2018-19 season, creating a new domestic demand stream. However, a significant rise in broken rice exports, driven by global geopolitical factors, began to tighten domestic availability and influenced market dynamics.

A sharp surge in broken rice exports to 3.89 million tonnes in the 2021-22 period drew down domestic supplies, contributing to a contraction in the overall market volume by 2021. In response, the government imposed a ban on broken rice exports and a 20% duty on non-basmati rice in September 2022 to ensure adequate supply for the domestic poultry, feed, and ethanol blending programs, which stabilized the market volume.

By 2023, a record rice harvest and the subsequent easing of export restrictions on most rice grades, though not on 100% broken rice, facilitated a recovery in market volume to 109.6 million tonnes. The government continued to use export duties and policy adjustments as tools to manage domestic food security and inflation, while ongoing modernization incentives and the established demand from the Public Distribution System provided underlying market stability.

Production milled rice and broken rice in India

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

India was one of the world's top producers of milled and broken rice from 2017 to 2020, ranking second globally by production volume.

Top producers of milled rice and broken rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of milled rice and broken rice, 2017-2020

In 2020, India produced 120.1 million tonnes of milled and broken rice, marking a 6.5% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production grew by 10.2%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.3%. The smallest change occurred in 2019, when production remained stable.

Annual dynamics of production in India in kind, 2017-2020, M t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following two years of growth, the production value of milled and broken rice in India declined. In 2020, output was valued at 66,406 million US dollars, representing a sharp drop of 16.1% from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, production value increased by 3.8%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 1.3%. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 79,105 million US dollars, while the largest increase of 12.0% occurred in 2018.

Annual dynamics of production in India in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports milled rice and broken rice from India

Exports in kind, K t

After two years of decline, India's export volume of milled and broken rice rebounded. In 2020, exports reached 14,169 thousand tonnes, showing a substantial year-over-year gain of 48.2%. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports increased by 18.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.9%. The lowest volume was recorded in 2019 at 9,562 thousand tonnes, which also saw the largest decline of 16.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from India in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Benin were significant but not dominant buyers of India's milled and broken rice exports. Iran accounted for 9.6% of export volume, Saudi Arabia for 9.0%, and Benin for 6.5%. Together, these three countries represented 25.1% of total export volume.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from India in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, India's milled and broken rice exports were valued at 7,833 million US dollars, a 16.8% increase from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, export value grew by 11.8%, corresponding to an annualized rate of 3.8%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 6,707 million US dollars, which also experienced the largest decline of 7.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from India in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, India's milled and broken rice exports in value terms were not highly concentrated. Iran held 15.2% of export value, Saudi Arabia 13.6%, and Iraq 6.8%. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 35.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from India in value, 2017-2020

Imports milled rice and broken rice to India

Imports in kind, K t

Import volumes showed significant fluctuations during this period. The lowest volume was recorded in 2017, while the peak occurred in 2018, with a 3.4-fold difference between these years. In 2020, India imported approximately 4 thousand tonnes of milled and broken rice, reflecting a steep 30.2% decrease from the previous year. The maximum volume was 6 thousand tonnes in 2018, which also saw the largest increase of 244.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to India in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, India's imports of milled and broken rice came from a diverse range of markets. Sudan accounted for 18.8% of import volume, Thailand for 16.8%, and Spain for 8.1%. Together, these three suppliers represented 43.7% of total import volume, with many smaller destinations making up the remaining 56.3%.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to India in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Import values experienced notable volatility during this period. The lowest value was in 2017, while the peak hit in 2019, with a 6.7-fold gap between these years. In 2020, India's milled and broken rice imports totaled 3 million US dollars, down 74.9% from the previous year. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 11 million US dollars, which also saw the largest increase of 160.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to India in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Russia, Thailand, and Sudan were the leading suppliers of milled and broken rice to India in value terms. Russia accounted for 38.4% of import value, Thailand for 17.2%, and Sudan for 8.3%. Together, these three countries captured 64.0% of total import value.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to India in value, 2017-2020