Rice market in South-eastern Asia

Earlier Report Observations

South-eastern Asia's rice production reached 200.6 million tonnes in 2018, supported by market liberalization and the entry of new players, which increased competition. However, output fell to 191.7 million tonnes in 2019, with market volume dropping from 189.6 million tonnes to 181.6 million tonnes, before stabilizing around these levels in 2020.

Production recovered to 196.1 million tonnes in 2021, and market volume expanded to 187.0 million tonnes, entering a period of stability through 2023. In value terms, the market declined until 2021 but surged from 2022 onward, reaching 134.6 billion US dollars in 2023. This sharp increase in market value was driven by India's export restrictions from October 2022 to June 2023, which reduced global rice supplies and pushed up world prices.

In 2024, El Niño weather conditions caused drought and reduced rainfall, threatening harvests, while India's return to exporting rice intensified competition in the global market, putting pressure on regional exporters to adjust their strategies.

Production rice in South-eastern Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

Top producers of rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of rice, 2017-2020

Rice production in South-eastern Asia declined for the second consecutive year. In 2019, output remained nearly flat, followed by a slight decrease in 2020 to 191.0 million tonnes. Production peaked in 2018 at 200.6 million tonnes, which represented the largest annual increase of 4.5%. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 4.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in South-eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, M t

Exports rice from South-eastern Asia

Exports in kind, K t

After two years of contraction, rice exports from South-eastern Asia increased in 2020. Shipments reached 12,570 thousand tonnes, marking a modest year-on-year rise of 7.9%. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports fell by 32.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of -12.2%. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 11,650 thousand tonnes, while the largest annual decline occurred in 2018 at 25.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South-eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, rice exports from South-eastern Asia were distributed across numerous markets. The top three destinations—China (15.2% of export volume), Benin (7.6%), and South Africa (4.6%)—collectively accounted for only 27.4% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from South-eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, rice exports from South-eastern Asia generated $7,890 million, reflecting a 5.9% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value decreased by 14.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of -5.2%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at $7,449 million, while the highest occurred in 2018 at $9,602 million. The largest annual decline took place in 2019, falling by 22.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South-eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, rice from South-eastern Asia was traded with many countries. Even the leading destinations—China, Benin, and the United States—together represented just 28.5% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from South-eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports rice to South-eastern Asia

Imports in kind, K t

The market exhibited volatility during the observed period. Import volumes fluctuated significantly, with a 1.9-fold difference between the low of 1,565 thousand tonnes in 2019 and the high of 3,144 thousand tonnes in 2020. In 2020, imports surged by 100.9% compared to the prior year. The largest annual decline was recorded in 2019 at 42.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South-eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, India (8.8% of import volume), Pakistan (7.8%), and China (1.9%) consistently served as the primary sources for rice imports into South-eastern Asia, together accounting for 18.5% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to South-eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Market behavior was characterized by volatility during these years. Import value peaked in 2018 at $2,576 million and reached its lowest point in 2017, with a 2.1-fold difference between these extremes. In 2020, import value stood at $2,276 million, showing a moderate 4.7% increase from the previous year. The largest annual decline occurred in 2019 at 15.6%, while the most significant increase was recorded in 2018 at 110.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South-eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, India (10.1% of import value), Pakistan (6.7%), and China (2.6%) formed the core of imports by value, together representing 19.4% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to South-eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020