Pastry market in Russia

Earlier Report Observations

The Russian pastry market grew in 2019, with volume reaching 498.8 thousand tons. This expansion was driven by robust domestic demand and a post-crisis recovery in production, further supported by a late-2018 ban on imports of flour-based confectionery from Ukraine which incentivized domestic manufacturing. However, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a sharp contraction, reducing market volume to 424.0 thousand tons as lockdowns curtailed production and weakened consumer spending.

Market volume continued to decline through the following years, falling to 187.2 thousand tons by 2023. The imposition of sanctions in 2022 was a key turning point, disrupting logistics, limiting ingredient imports, and causing international producers to scale back operations in Russia, all of which constrained supply. While consumer interest in fresh pastry and healthier segments persisted, these factors were insufficient to offset the broader market downturn during this period.

A recovery began in 2024, with the market volume rising to 210.9 thousand tons. This rebound was fueled by a significant increase in domestic production and a growing share of local brands, which helped mitigate the earlier impact of sanctions. Production is projected to reach 293 thousand tons in 2025, indicating a stabilization of output.

Production pastry in Russia

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Russia held the 9th position globally in pastry production.

Top producers of pastry, 2018-2021

World map of production of pastry, 2018-2021

Russia's pastry production declined for the second year in a row. In 2021, the country produced 340.6 K t of pastry, showing a significant drop of 24.4% compared to the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, production fell by 25.4%, which translates to an average annual decrease of 9.3%. The highest production level was recorded in 2019 at 516.0 K t, with the largest year-on-year increase of 13.0% also occurring that year.

Annual dynamics of production in Russia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports pastry from Russia

Exports in kind, K t

Russia's pastry exports grew for the third consecutive year. In 2021, exports reached 157.1 K t, up by 16.0% from the previous year. From 2018 to 2021, exports increased by 53%, averaging an annual growth rate of 15.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Russia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Between 2018 and 2021, the main destinations for Russia's pastry exports in volume terms were Kazakhstan, accounting for 39.4% of exports, Belarus with 23.3%, and Azerbaijan at 5.2%. Together, these three countries represented 67.9% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Russia in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

Russia's pastry exports in value terms rose for the third year running. In 2021, exports totaled 275.8 M $ US, a sharp increase of 31.1% compared to 2020. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, exports grew by 66.5%, with an average annual rate of 18.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Russia in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, three key markets—Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan—collectively accounted for 68.2% of Russia's total pastry exports in value terms.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Russia in value, 2018-2021

Imports pastry to Russia

Imports in kind, K t

After two years of decline, Russia's pastry imports increased. In 2021, imports were recorded at 109.9 K t, a modest rise of 3.3% compared to 2020. The lowest import volume was in 2020 at 106.4 K t, while the largest decrease occurred in 2019 with a drop of 2.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Russia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

During 2018–2021, Poland, Belarus, and Germany were the primary sources for Russia's pastry imports in volume terms. Poland led with 32.6% of imports, followed by Belarus and Germany each at 16.7%. Together, these three countries made up 66.0% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Russia in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2021, Russia's pastry imports from abroad amounted to 297.8 M $ US, a strong increase of 12.2% over the previous year. From 2018 to 2021, imports grew by 11.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.7%. The lowest value was in 2020 at 265.5 M $ US, which also saw the largest decline of 2.4% that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Russia in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Throughout 2018–2021, Poland, Germany, and Italy were the leading sources for Russia's pastry imports in value terms. Poland accounted for 31.8% of imports, Germany for 21.1%, and Italy for 10.8%. Combined, these three countries represented 63.7% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Russia in value, 2018-2021