Pastry market in Mexico, 2026

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2025, the Mexican pastry market experienced significant shifts in both production and trade patterns. In 2018, the sector was already substantial, contributing 0.5% to Mexico's GDP and generating 1.6 million jobs, with pastries firmly established as part of the daily diet. This robust foundation was supported by initiatives from the Secretary of Economy and industry associations like ANPROPAN. The market continued to evolve with a clear consumer preference for homemade, gourmet, personalized, and themed cakes, solidifying Mexico's position as the eighth-largest global market for industrialized pastries. Production volume grew from 608.5 thousand tons in 2018 to 756.8 thousand tons in 2023, while the market's export orientation strengthened dramatically, with export volume surging from 179.6 thousand tons in 2018 to a peak of 479.8 thousand tons in 2024.

Several key drivers shaped the market's trajectory. The food delivery boom, particularly during and after the pandemic period, created substantial new sales channels for pastry businesses, leveraging Mexico's status as Latin America's second-largest food delivery market. This was complemented by a strategic diversification of product offerings, with companies placing greater emphasis on organic and gluten-free variants to capture growing consumer segments. The retail landscape also saw change with the entry of international high-end pastry shops, such as Ladurée in Mexico City in 2023, expanding the availability of premium products. Concurrently, the sector grappled with increased costs for key inputs like flour, sugar, and eggs, which pressured profitability and influenced market dynamics.

The export market became a central feature of the industry's growth. By 2024, the total trade value for bakery, pastry, and biscuit products reached approximately 1 294 million dollars, with key exporting entities including Mexico City, Nuevo León, and Puebla. This export growth was supported by Mexico's integration into the USMCA supply networks, though it also introduced exposure to international input costs and potential U.S. tariffs. Looking ahead to 2025, the market was projected to reach a value of 1.64 billion dollars, driven by enduring trends toward healthier ingredients, sugar-free options, and personalized decoration, alongside the sustained popularity of specific products like cheesecake.

Production pastry in Mexico

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Mexico ranked sixth globally in pastry production.

Top producers of pastry, 2018-2021

World map of production of pastry, 2018-2021

Mexico's pastry production volume grew for the second consecutive year. In 2021, Mexico produced 690.2 K t of pastry, showing a strong 10.2% increase compared to the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, production rose by 13.4%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 4.3%. The lowest production volume was recorded in 2019 at 576.6 K t, with the largest decline of 5.2% occurring that same year.

Annual dynamics of production in Mexico in kind, 2018-2021, K t

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

In 2021, Mexico's pastry output was valued at 1 663 M $ US, reflecting a 17.1% reduction from the year before. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, production decreased by 15.5%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -5.4%. The highest value was recorded in 2020 at 2 006 M $ US, when the largest increase of 8.8% was observed.

Annual dynamics of production in Mexico in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Exports pastry from Mexico

Exports in kind, K t

Mexico's pastry exports increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, export volume reached 346.0 K t, indicating a steep 67.9% rise compared to 2020. From 2018 to 2021, exports grew by 92.7%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Mexico in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Between 2018 and 2021, nearly all pastry exports from Mexico in volume terms were associated with the United States, which accounted for 95.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Mexico in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

Pastry exports from Mexico increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, exports totaled 833.3 M $ US, marking an abrupt 26.3% uptick over the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, exports rose by 43.6%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 12.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Mexico in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, the United States was the almost exclusive buyer of pastry from Mexico, taking 95.4% of total exports in value terms.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Mexico in value, 2018-2021

Imports pastry to Mexico

Imports in kind, K t

In 2021, foreign pastry supplies to Mexico reached 72.1 K t, reflecting a 36.5% year-over-year increase. Between 2018 and 2021, imports grew by 32.3%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 9.8%. The lowest volume was recorded in 2020 at 52.8 K t, with the largest decline of 8.7% occurring that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Mexico in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, the United States remained the main source of pastry imports to Mexico, accounting for 86.3% of total imports in volume terms, while the remaining volume was distributed among other countries.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Mexico in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2021, Mexico imported pastry valued at 1 663 M $ US, marking a significant 13.9% increase compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, imports rose by 16.5%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2%. The largest decline was recorded in 2020 at 5.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Mexico in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, the United States remained the leading supplier of pastry to Mexico, with 85.2% of total imports in value terms, while the rest was spread across many other countries.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Mexico in value, 2018-2021