Paddy rice market in MERCOSUR

Earlier Report Observations

The paddy rice market volume in MERCOSUR began the period at 14 492 thousand tons in 2018, but weather shocks from droughts and excessive rainfall that year reduced planted area and harvests, pressuring domestic prices and consumption. This contributed to a decline in market volume to 13 347 thousand tons in 2019, accelerated by a broader trend of falling national consumption influenced by climatic and market factors.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 disrupted supply chains and raised prices due to lower initial stocks from the 2019/20 harvest and previously reduced planting, yet increased exports to Central America and Mexico helped the market volume recover to 14 031 thousand tons. Volume then peaked at 15 276 thousand tons in 2021, even as forecasts pointed to reduced planting area in Brazil from La Niña and unattractive prices; a concurrent drop in exports retained more supply within the region.

Market volume fell sharply to 13 064 thousand tons in 2022 as lower planting intentions across MERCOSUR and harvest delays restricted short-term supply, while Brazil’s record rice exports of 2.1 million tons diverted grain from the domestic market. The contraction continued to 12 699 thousand tons in 2023 amid sector instability, paralyzed negotiations, planting delays for the 2025/26 crop, and declining internal consumption, which led to a significant devaluation of paddy rice prices.

Production paddy rice in MERCOSUR

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of paddy rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of paddy rice, 2017-2020

Following two consecutive years of decline, MERCOSUR's paddy rice production rebounded. In 2020, the region produced 14,711 thousand tons of paddy rice, marking a modest year-over-year increase of 6.4%. Over the 2017-2020 period, production decreased by 8.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.0%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 13,828 thousand tons, which also saw the largest decline of 9.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

After two years of contraction, MERCOSUR's paddy rice production value showed signs of recovery. In 2020, the output was valued at 4,302 million US dollars, reflecting a gradual 3.8% increase compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, production value declined by 27.9%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 10.3%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 4,145 million US dollars, while the most significant drop occurred in 2018 with a 27.8% decrease.

Annual dynamics of production in MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports paddy rice from MERCOSUR

Exports in kind, K t

The market exhibited volatility throughout the observed period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2020, showing a 4.2-fold difference between these years. In 2020, MERCOSUR exported 858.4 thousand tons of paddy rice, representing a substantial 69.0% increase from the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 39.9% drop, while the most significant increase was recorded in 2018 with a remarkable 309.2% surge.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Venezuela (46.1% of exports in kind), Mexico (10.9%), and Costa Rica (10.5%) remained the top buyers of paddy rice from MERCOSUR. Together, these three countries accounted for 67.5% of total exports in kind during this period.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. Exports hit their lowest point in 2017 and reached their maximum in 2020, with a 3.3-fold gap between these years. In 2020, MERCOSUR exported paddy rice worth 251.0 million US dollars, up by 64.9% compared to 2019. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 with a 35.9% decrease, while the most significant increase occurred in 2018 with a 210.9% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017-2020, Venezuela (46.5% of exports in value terms), Mexico (10.9%), and Costa Rica (10.2%) continued to be the primary buyers of paddy rice from MERCOSUR. Collectively, they represented 67.6% of total exports in value terms over this period.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020

Imports paddy rice to MERCOSUR

Imports in kind, K t

The market showed signs of volatility over the observed period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2018 and peaked in 2020, reflecting a 9.5-fold difference between these years. In 2020, MERCOSUR imported 179.1 thousand tons of paddy rice, representing a sharp 554.1% increase from the previous year. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 18.9 thousand tons, which also saw the largest decline of 45.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the United States and Guyana remained the key partner countries for paddy rice imports in kind to MERCOSUR, jointly accounting for 29.2% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

There were noticeable fluctuations in market performance during the period. Imports reached their trough in 2018 and peaked in 2020, changing by a factor of 4.8 between these years. In 2020, cross-border shipments of paddy rice to MERCOSUR amounted to 83.8 million US dollars, up by 269.8% compared to 2019. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 17.4 million US dollars, which also experienced the largest decline of 39.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over the 2017-2020 period, the United States and Guyana made the largest contribution to imports in value terms, together representing 35.3% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020