Paddy rice market in Central Asia

Earlier Report Observations

The paddy rice market in Central Asia expanded from 915 thousand tonnes in 2018 to 1 109 thousand tonnes in 2019. This growth coincided with Tajikistan's policy of reducing rice imports while ramping up domestic production, which altered the regional supply structure. Increased rice output in Russia during 2019 further added to overall availability in neighboring markets. Market volume then stabilized around 1 113-1 114 thousand tonnes through 2020 and 2021.

A decline to 1 068 thousand tonnes occurred in 2022 following Russia's imposition of a rice export ban, enacted after a hydro-unit accident to secure domestic stocks and control prices. By 2023, the market recovered to 1 135 thousand tonnes, driven by heightened demand linked to geopolitical risks, sanctions, and concerns over Asian harvests due to El Niño, which supported production incentives.

In 2024, Russia reported a record rice harvest and resumed exports to Central Asian countries, while Kazakhstan piloted a new Trans-Caspian logistics route for shipping broken rice to Europe. Tajikistan continued its trend of import substitution through increased domestic cultivation, shaping the regional market dynamics.

Production paddy rice in Central Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of paddy rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of paddy rice, 2017-2020

Central Asia's paddy rice production increased for the second year in a row. In 2018, production hit its lowest point at 915 thousand tons, with a significant decline of 16.8%. The following year, 2019, saw the largest increase of 21.1%. By 2020, production reached 1,114 thousand tons, marking a modest 0.6% rise compared to 2019.

Annual dynamics of production in Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports paddy rice from Central Asia

Exports in kind, t

The market experienced volatility during the observed period. Exports peaked in 2017 and fell to their lowest in 2019, showing a 7.1-fold difference between these years. In 2019, exports dropped to 236 tons, representing the largest decline of 82.6%. However, in 2020, Central Asia's paddy rice exports surged to 933 tons, a dramatic increase of 294.7% from the previous year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Afghanistan, Russia, and Iraq consistently led as the top destinations for Central Asia's paddy rice exports in volume. Afghanistan accounted for 35.4% of exports, Russia for 19.7%, and Iraq for 1.4%. Together, these three countries made up 56.5% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Market performance showed noticeable fluctuations over the period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2019 and peaked in 2020, with a 4.7-fold difference between these years. In 2019, imports fell to 146 thousand US dollars, the largest decline of 66.6%. By 2020, paddy rice exports from Central Asia amounted to 679 thousand US dollars, a substantial rise of 366.0% compared to 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017–2020, Afghanistan, Russia, and Iraq were the key partners for Central Asia's paddy rice exports in value terms. Afghanistan contributed 36.1% of export value, Russia 35.6%, and Iraq 2.0%. Collectively, these three countries represented 73.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Central Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports paddy rice to Central Asia

Imports in kind, t

Paddy rice imports into Central Asia declined for the third consecutive year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 89.8%, with an average annual decline of 53.3%. In 2020, Central Asia imported approximately 557 tons of paddy rice, a sharp drop of 33.7% from the previous year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia, China, and India were the leading sources for paddy rice imports into Central Asia in volume. Russia accounted for 28.8% of imports, China for 1.5%, and India for 0.9%. Together, these three countries made up 31.1% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Foreign paddy rice supplies to Central Asia fell for the third year in a row. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 90.4%, equating to an annualized decline of 54.1%. In 2020, imports totaled 405 thousand US dollars, a sharp fall of 30.8% compared to 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

During 2017–2020, Russia, China, and India formed the main group of sources for paddy rice imports into Central Asia in value terms. Russia contributed 29.8% of import value, China 1.5%, and India 1.4%. Combined, these three countries accounted for 32.8% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Central Asia in value, 2017-2020