Paddy rice market in Asia

Earlier Report Observations

The Asian paddy rice market volume expanded from 687.8 million tons in 2018 to 719.6 million tons in 2023, despite intermittent annual fluctuations. This overall growth was primarily driven by sustained government interventions in major producing countries, particularly India, where minimum support price increases and public procurement programs directly encouraged farmers to maintain and expand paddy cultivation, supporting total market volume.

In 2020, despite COVID-19 related supply chain disruptions, production rose as India's increased Minimum Support Price stabilized farmer incomes and incentivized output. The expansion of government food grain distribution schemes under free ration programs in India boosted consumption in 2021, further supporting market growth. By 2023, substantial state procurement by India's Food Corporation, which accounted for over 38% of the country's production, provided a firm demand base, coinciding with a spike in global rice prices due to supply-demand imbalances.

For 2024, market dynamics continued to evolve with India's policy shift removing export floor prices for non-basmati rice to promote exports. Concurrently, the entry of major players like Adani Wilmar through brand acquisitions and a growing consumer focus on high-quality, sustainable rice varieties indicated a maturation of the regional market structure.

Production paddy rice in Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

Top producers of paddy rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of paddy rice, 2017-2020

In 2020, Asia produced 690.1 million tonnes of paddy rice, marking a modest 1.7% increase compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 3.6%, which translates to an annualized rate of 1.2%. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 1.3%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2018 at 3.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Asia in kind, 2017-2020, M t

Exports paddy rice from Asia

Exports in kind, K t

The market exhibited volatility throughout the observed period. Export volumes reached their lowest point in 2019 and peaked in 2018, with a top-to-bottom ratio of 13.7 times. In 2020, Asia exported 13.3 thousand tonnes of paddy rice, representing a 24.6% increase from the previous year. The minimum value was 10.7 thousand tonnes in 2019, while the maximum was 146.0 thousand tonnes in 2018. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 92.7%, and the largest increase was in 2018 at 63.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, paddy rice exports from Asia were distributed across numerous countries. Belgium accounted for 2.1% of exports in kind, Tanzania for 1.2%, and France for 1.1%, with these three countries collectively representing only 4.5% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The data shows irregular changes, pointing to a volatile market environment. Export values fell to their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2018, with a variation of 1.7 times. In 2020, exported paddy rice volumes from Asia amounted to 95.0 million US dollars, reflecting a dramatic 33.2% year-over-year uptick. The maximum value was recorded in 2018 at 118.3 million US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 39.7%, while the largest increase was in 2018 at 71.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Madagascar and Nigeria remained the key destinations for exports in value terms, together accounting for 1.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports paddy rice to Asia

Imports in kind, K t

Imported paddy rice volumes in Asia increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 399.0 thousand tonnes, showing a dramatic 25.1% rise compared to 2019. From 2017 to 2020, imports grew by 14.9%, equating to an annualized rate of 4.7%. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 271.7 thousand tonnes, with the largest decline that year at 21.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Data from 2017 to 2020 indicate that imports in kind of paddy rice to Asia were not concentrated on a few key destinations. Russia accounted for 6.8% of imports in kind, Bulgaria for 4.6%, and the United States for 3.4%, with these three countries jointly making up only 14.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Paddy rice volumes in Asia increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, Asia imported a total of 447.3 million US dollars of paddy rice, representing a sharp 66.8% rise compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports grew by 112.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of 28.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Data for 2017 to 2020 show that imports in value terms of paddy rice to Asia were not concentrated on a few key destinations. Russia accounted for 5.0% of imports in value terms, Bulgaria for 3.5%, and the United States for 3.4%, with these three countries collectively representing only 11.8% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Asia in value, 2017-2020