Milk with fat content of >1% and ≤6% market in Sweden

Earlier Report Observations

In 2018, Swedish authorities began revising the rules for selling unpasteurized milk, examining international experiences and evaluating regulations introduced in 2016, aiming to develop controls and ensure safety in direct farm sales. This process included discussions on future possibilities for controlled sales of unpasteurized milk. The following year, an underground trend for unpasteurized milk emerged, with increased direct sales to private individuals and restaurants, reflecting growing consumer interest in minimally processed milk for its taste and character, creating a new market niche. However, the total milk market volume declined from 667.8 thousand tons in 2018 to 605.6 thousand tons in 2019, then saw a slight recovery to 620.2 thousand tons in 2020 before falling again to 599.0 thousand tons in 2021.

From 2022 onward, the dairy sector continued to consolidate, with a trend toward fewer but larger farms where the average herd size reached 109 cows per farm, and 66% of dairy cows were in herds of over 100 head. This structural shift affected milk production and distribution. In 2023, the average herd size increased to 113 cows per farm, and Sweden achieved about 70% self-sufficiency in dairy products. New rules for farm sales of unpasteurized milk took effect on September 1, 2023, limiting volumes to 70 liters per week and requiring written information to consumers about risks and handling, further regulating this niche segment. The market volume continued to decline, reaching 513.1 thousand tons in 2023. In 2024, the market stabilized at 517.1 thousand tons, supported by stable and high profitability in milk production, with favorable milk prices and relatively steady feed costs, despite a decrease in organic milk volumes.

Production milk with fat content of >1% and ≤6% in Sweden

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following a two-year decline, Sweden's production of milk with a fat content between 1% and 6% showed an increase. In 2020, output reached 454.2 million US dollars, marking a slight gain of 2.1% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production decreased by 13.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of -4.6%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 444.7 million US dollars, which also saw the largest decline of 14.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Sweden in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

In 2020, Sweden produced 614.3 thousand tonnes of milk with a fat content between 1% and 6%, showing a slight gain of 2.5% relative to the prior year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production decreased by 5.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.8%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 661.5 thousand tonnes, while the lowest was in 2019 at 599.5 thousand tonnes. The largest decline occurred in 2019, dropping by 9.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in Sweden in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports milk with fat content of >1% and ≤6% from Sweden

Exports in kind, t

The market exhibited volatility over the observed period. Exports of milk with a fat content between 1% and 6% from Sweden peaked in 2017 and fell to their lowest point in 2018, with a 2.8-fold difference between these years. In 2020, volumes stood at 4 395 tonnes, showing a decline of 6.8% compared to 2019. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 2 615 tonnes, which also saw the largest decline of 64.8%. The largest increase occurred in 2019, rising by 80.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sweden in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Denmark, Finland, and Belgium were the primary buyers of milk with a fat content between 1% and 6% from Sweden, accounting for 39.4%, 20.3%, and 16.6% of exports in kind, respectively. Together, these three countries comprised 76.3% of total exports in kind.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sweden in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Market performance showed noticeable fluctuations during the period. Exports in value terms peaked in 2017 and bottomed in 2018, differing by 2.8-fold. In 2020, Sweden exported 2 987 thousand US dollars of milk with a fat content between 1% and 6%, up by 25.9% compared to 2019. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 1 246 thousand US dollars, which also saw the largest decline of 64.7%. The largest increase occurred in 2019, rising by 90.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sweden in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Over the period from 2017 to 2020, Denmark, Belgium, and Finland were the main buyers of milk with a fat content between 1% and 6% from Sweden in value terms, accounting for 39.5%, 14.7%, and 13.1% of exports, respectively. Together, these three countries comprised 67.3% of total exports in value terms.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sweden in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk with fat content of >1% and ≤6% to Sweden

Imports in kind, t

In 2020, deliveries of milk with a fat content between 1% and 6% to Sweden amounted to 10 216 tonnes, equivalent to a year-on-year drop of 5.0%. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 13.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of -4.7%. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 8 930 tonnes, which also saw the largest decline of 24.3%. The largest increase occurred in 2019, rising by 20.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sweden in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Denmark and Germany jointly absorbed 80.4% of total imports in kind of milk with a fat content between 1% and 6% to Sweden, with the remaining volume distributed across smaller markets.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sweden in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Imported volumes of milk with a fat content between 1% and 6% to Sweden declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports totalled 7 856 thousand US dollars, constituting a limited decline of 9.8% versus the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 58.5%, equating to an annualized rate of -25.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sweden in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Denmark and Germany clearly dominated imports in value terms of milk with a fat content between 1% and 6% to Sweden, jointly accounting for 87.3% of total flows, while other countries held much smaller shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sweden in value, 2017-2020