Milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% market in Southern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The market for milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% in Southern Africa expanded from 11 578 t in 2018 to 13 141 t in 2020. This growth was initially supported by a nearly 5% increase in milk production in 2018 as profitability returned to the dairy sector, boosting raw material availability. Drought conditions and higher feed costs in 2019 pressured milk output, but rising imports helped maintain market volume.

Market volume contracted to 9 126 t in 2022. A sharp recovery to 13 469 t followed in 2023, coinciding with a 25.5% decrease in the average price of unprocessed milk, which reduced input costs for powder manufacturers. During this period, consumer preferences showed a surge in alternative dairy products, prompting local producers to innovate with plant-based offerings while demand for traditional milk powder remained strong.

In 2024, global dairy price increases, particularly for whole milk powder, influenced the local market, contributing to price inflation across various dairy products. Exchange rate appreciation following interest rate adjustments also affected the cost of imported dairy ingredients.

Production milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% in Southern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5%, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5%, 2017-2020

Market performance showed noticeable fluctuations during this period. In 2019, production volumes bottomed out at 3 290 tonnes, while they peaked in 2018 at 7 632 tonnes, representing a 2.3-fold difference between the high and low points. In 2020, Southern Africa produced 3 497 tonnes of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5%, marking a moderate 6.3% increase from the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 56.9% drop, while the most significant increase was recorded in 2018 at 125.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Market performance exhibited noticeable fluctuations throughout this period. The lowest production value was recorded in 2019 at 10 028 thousand US dollars, while the highest value reached 30 946 thousand US dollars in 2018, reflecting a 3.1-fold gap between these years. In 2020, output of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% was valued at 11 313 thousand US dollars in Southern Africa, representing a 12.8% increase from the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 67.6% decrease, while the most substantial increase was seen in 2018 at 85.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Exports milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% from Southern Africa

Exports in kind, t

Following a two-year decline, deliveries of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% from Southern Africa increased. In 2019, exports reached their lowest point at 5 317 tonnes, with a 16.2% decline that year. By 2020, exports amounted to 7 247 tonnes, showing a 36.3% year-over-year increase. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports grew by 6.5%, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of 2.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

The partner structure for exports in kind remained fragmented between 2017 and 2020. Mozambique accounted for 34.6% of exports, Zambia for 7.0%, and Zimbabwe for 4.8%, with these three countries together representing 46.4% of total flows. No single country achieved a dominant share during this period.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

After two years of losses, Southern Africa's exports of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% increased in value. In 2019, exports reached their minimum at 16 209 thousand US dollars, with a 37.0% decline that year. By 2020, exports totaled 23 447 thousand US dollars, reflecting a dramatic 44.7% increase compared to the previous year. However, between 2017 and 2020, overall exports decreased by 30.1%, equating to an annualized decline of 11.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, three main markets absorbed 50.6% of total export value for milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% from Southern Africa. Mozambique, Zambia, and Tanzania together represented this significant portion of export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% to Southern Africa

Imports in kind, t

Imports of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% into Southern Africa increased for the second consecutive year. In 2018, imports reached their lowest point at 10 294 tonnes, with a 12.4% decline that year. The following year saw the largest increase at 42.4%. By 2020, imports amounted to 16 891 tonnes, reflecting a 15.2% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 43.7%, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of 12.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

The structure of imports in kind was diversified between 2017 and 2020. France accounted for 21.6% of imports, Belgium for 15.4%, and the United Kingdom for 10.2%, with these three countries together representing 47.2% of total flows. No single country held a clearly dominant position during this period.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Southern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Cross-border shipments of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% into Southern Africa increased for the second consecutive year. In 2018, imports reached their minimum value at 22 985 thousand US dollars, with a 25.1% decline that year. The following year saw the largest increase at 65.3%. By 2020, imports amounted to 50 931 thousand US dollars, up 34.0% from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 65.9%, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of 18.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, imports in value terms were characterized by a broad spread across markets. France accounted for 20.8% of import value, Belgium for 16.4%, and New Zealand for 11.4%, with these three countries together representing 48.6% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Southern Africa in value, 2017-2020