Milk powder with fat content of >1.5% market in Central Asia

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2021, the milk powder market in Central Asia grew steadily, from 27 thousand tonnes to 39.5 thousand tonnes. This expansion was supported by the region's economic growth and integration initiatives, which enlarged the consumer base and improved infrastructure. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 affected supply chains but did not halt market growth. By 2021, increased exports of dairy products from Russia, particularly to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, enhanced product availability, while demand for high-fat items like milk powder continued to rise.

In 2022, milk powder production in Central Asia more than tripled to 124.4 thousand tonnes, and the market size reached 128.4 thousand tonnes. This surge was linked to Russia's stricter anti-adulteration measures, including digital tracking and labeling requirements, and the removal of milk subsidies for large producers. These changes likely boosted local production in Central Asia by making it more competitive relative to Russian imports. Concurrently, growing consumer demand for high-fat dairy products, including cream and milk powder, sustained market expansion.

The market continued to grow in 2023, reaching 136.6 thousand tonnes, as quality control and anti-fraud efforts remained priorities, bolstering consumer confidence. Interest in high-fat products persisted, supporting consumption. For 2024, Russia's plans to increase milk output to 38.5 million tonnes by 2030 and further tightening of quality regulations may influence supply and standards in Central Asia.

Production milk powder with fat content of >1.5% in Central Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of milk powder with fat content of >1.5%, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk powder with fat content of >1.5%, 2017-2020

Central Asia's production of milk powder with a fat content exceeding 1.5% has grown for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region produced 34,381 tonnes, marking a significant year-over-year increase of 23.3%. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production rose by 48.4%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 14.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports milk powder with fat content of >1.5% from Central Asia

Exports in kind, t

The export market for this product showed considerable volatility during the observed period. Exports hit their lowest point in 2018 at just 3 tonnes, before surging to 204 tonnes in 2020—a staggering year-over-year increase of 1,001.9%. This represents a 66-fold difference between the peak in 2020 and the trough in 2018. The most substantial decline occurred in 2018, with a drop of 95.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

Between 2017 and 2020, Russia and China were the dominant destinations for Central Asia's milk powder exports in volume terms, together accounting for 83.3% of total shipments.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Export values also displayed an unstable pattern over this timeframe. The lowest point was recorded in 2018 at 12 thousand US dollars, while 2020 saw a peak of 4,680 thousand US dollars—a dramatic year-over-year jump of 19,837.8%. This resulted in a 399-fold gap between these two years. The largest decline occurred in 2018, with a decrease of 92.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, China emerged as the clear leader in purchasing Central Asian milk powder by value, capturing 93.7% of total export revenues.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Central Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk powder with fat content of >1.5% to Central Asia

Imports in kind, t

After two years of decline, imports of milk powder with over 1.5% fat content into Central Asia rebounded in 2020. That year, imports reached 3,246 tonnes, reflecting a robust 13.8% increase compared to the previous year. The lowest volume was recorded in 2019 at 2,853 tonnes, while the most significant drop occurred in 2018, with an 11.4% decrease.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

Throughout the 2017–2020 period, Poland, Belarus, and Russia formed the core group of suppliers for imports by volume. Poland led with 32.8% of imports, followed by Belarus at 21.8% and Russia at 16.1%. Together, these three countries represented 70.7% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Import values for this product increased for the second year in a row. In 2020, imports amounted to 11,033 thousand US dollars, up 24.5% from 2019. Over the broader period from 2017 to 2020, imports grew by 10.2%, equivalent to an average annual rate of 3.3%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 8,512 thousand US dollars, which also saw the largest decline of 15.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

In terms of value from 2017 to 2020, Poland, Belarus, and France were the top sources for imports. Poland accounted for 36.4% of import value, Belarus for 19.5%, and France for 19.0%. Collectively, these three countries made up 74.9% of total import expenditures.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Central Asia in value, 2017-2020