Milk market in Central Asia

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the Central Asian milk market volume grew from 18 305 to 19 328 thousand tons. This expansion was driven by the entry of new players and the launch of large production facilities, supported by active state investment programs in livestock and dairy processing. Despite climatic droughts that raised feed costs and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer preferences, the market continued to grow through the strengthening of discounters, the rise of private labels, and the introduction of new product segments like yogurts and ice cream.

Between 2021 and 2023, growth accelerated, with market volume reaching 21 018 thousand tons by 2023. Key drivers included legislative changes aimed at supporting dairy exporters, increased investment in modernizing production lines, and geopolitical factors that stimulated domestic manufacturing. The activation of IPOs by quasi-state companies attracted further investment, supporting a 12.6% year-on-year increase in output by 2023, while rising exports of dry milk and butter also contributed to market expansion.

In 2024, the market maintained its resilience through continued modernization of existing production lines using state support, alongside an 18% rise in dairy exports compared to 2022. Despite a 28.8% increase in raw milk production costs due to higher feed, energy, and labor expenses, demand polarization and persistent consumer trends toward healthy lifestyles helped sustain market stability.

Production milk in Central Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milk, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk, 2017-2020

Milk production in Central Asia has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 19 298 thousand tons of milk, which represents a 2.5% increase compared to the previous year. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production rose by 9.1%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports milk from Central Asia

Exports in kind, t

Following two years of growth, Central Asia's milk exports experienced a decline. In 2020, exports totaled 41 815 tons, showing a significant drop of 14.1% from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports increased by 56%, translating to an annualized growth rate of 16.0%. The peak was reached in 2019 at 48 700 tons, while the largest year-on-year increase occurred in 2018 at 37.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia was the dominant destination for Central Asia's milk exports in volume terms, accounting for 65.3% of the total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The value of milk exports from Central Asia has risen for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports amounted to 39.7 million US dollars, marking a 16.5% increase over 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, export value grew by 107.9%, with an average annual rate of 27.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During the 2017-2020 period, Russia, China, and Afghanistan were the key markets for Central Asia's milk exports in value terms. Russia led with 59.1% of the total, followed by China at 3.9% and Afghanistan at 0.6%, together making up 63.6% of all export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Central Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk to Central Asia

Imports in kind, t

After two years of decline, Central Asia's milk imports rebounded. In 2020, the region imported 71 800 tons of milk, reflecting a 12.1% year-over-year increase. Over the 2017-2020 span, imports decreased by 15.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of -5.5%. The lowest point was in 2019 at 64 075 tons, and the sharpest drop occurred in 2018 at 18.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Belarus, Russia, and France were the primary sources for Central Asia's milk imports in volume terms. Belarus accounted for 32.3% of imports, Russia for 28.3%, and France for 6.1%, collectively representing 66.7% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Following two years of decrease, Central Asia's milk imports in value terms saw an upturn. In 2020, imports totaled 144.0 million US dollars, a 36.9% rise compared to the previous year. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 105.1 million US dollars, with the most substantial decline happening in 2018 at 27.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, Belarus, Russia, and France remained the leading sources for Central Asia's milk imports in value terms. Belarus held 36.2% of the import value, Russia 23.7%, and France 11.3%, together comprising 71.1% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Central Asia in value, 2017-2020